On an initiative of the IP-Journal of the German Council of Foreign Relations (DGAP), the Study Committee for Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) and the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) are regularly publishing short contributions on a common subject, written by three experts of these institutes. The purpose of these “Weimar Triangle Analyses” is to give the French, Polish and German views on central questions of European politics and European integration.

It may appear that Russia is equally dissatisfied with both Western security’s presence in and its departure from Afghanistan planned for 2014, but whether the Western withdrawal is seen as more of a gain a loss depends on how Moscow itself assesses and balances its own security concerns in the region: instability, extremism and narcotics. 

The wave of deep offshore and unconventional gas and oil exploration projects, rendered economically feasible by relatively high prices and new technologies, has reached the shores of the Mediterranean. Levantine countries, including Cyprus, Israel, Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, Syria, have new offshore gas potentials.

 

Since the end of the Cold War, the international security environment has been transformed and nuclear weapons have been marginalized in the West. However, the NATO security policies remain almost unchanged: deterrence is still considered as a principle guiding the Atlantic Alliance, even though the actual policy statements lack target, direction and urgency.

The black middle class in Johannesburg is a much debated but ill-defined phenomenon, treated more often by economic players than by social scientists. Far from static and clear, the concept of the middle class is for us relevant insofar as it reveals crucial dynamics of the society. 

China is poised for a dramatic increase in its demand for natural gas. As total energy demand has risen to record levels in the last five years, China has found itself in an increasingly difficult bind: the social and environmental burden from coal is becoming too heavy to bear and a growing dependence on foreign oil is becoming strategically more risky with the passage of time. 

For more than ten years, harsh negotiations among different oil majors and pipeline consortia have been taking place about the Southern Gas Corridor, all of them seeking to transit 10 bcm/year of natural gas that will be produced from the Shah Deniz giant gas field of Azerbaijan to the European Union. As of today, no Final Investment Decision (FID) has been reached neither for the preferred pipeline route to Europe, nor for the production of the second phase of Shah Deniz.

Even though the private sector brings more funding to innovation programs, the role government plays by hosting and/or funding research projects remains key. Only the public sector can pursue the long term projects with no foreseeable profitability that will enable the next industrial revolution.