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Development of the Northern Sea Route: How great is the need for satellite observation?

Date de publication
17 March 2014
Accroche

The sea route between Europe and Asia is significantly shorter via Arctic waters than via the Suez Canal. Changes in global climate have resulted in a diminishing of ice in Arctic waters. This has resulted in the Northern Sea Route establishing itself as a viable commercial alternative, which is expected to expand in the years ahead. Satellite observation is one of the methods employed to gather information about ice conditions, weather and oil spills, and is a prerequisite for ensuring the continued development of the new traffic.

How to Misread Polls

Date de publication
13 March 2014
Accroche

Poll numbers are the life blood of politics these days. Anything expressed in digits has a claim to truth that assertions without digits cannot make. They inspire confidence - especially among those aspiring to public office - that they actually understand what public sentiment is.

Middle East Oil and Gas Producers: Soon to Be Back in the Lead?

Date de publication
12 March 2014
Accroche

The World Energy Outlook 2013 published by the IEA confirms that despite the rise of unconventional fuels in particular in the US, Middle East will by the mid-2020s retake its place as the world major oil and gas supplier, providing most of the increase in global supplies. Well, there are some big ifs.

Ukraine: Is Europe Ready for Another Gas Cut?

Date de publication
06 March 2014
Accroche

The turmoil in Ukraine is now putting one question on everyone mouth: what if Russian gas transiting through Ukraine was cut once again? Today, Ukrainian gas pipelines still carry around 60% of the Russian gas intended for the European Union; i.e. around 16% of the EU final gas consumption.

Between Allies and Rivals: Turkey, Nuclear Weapons, and BMD

Date de publication
06 March 2014
Accroche

This paper discusses Turkey’s attitudes vis-à-vis nuclear weapons and Ballistic Missile Defense in the light of recent developments in the Iranian nuclear program and NATO’s evolving concept of extended deterrence.

Reading Rouhani Right

Date de publication
05 March 2014
Accroche

Poll numbers are the life blood of politics these days. Anything expressed in digits has a claim to truth that assertions without digits cannot make. They inspire confidence - especially among those aspiring to public office - that they actually understand what public sentiment is. If you lived between nuclear-armed Israel and Pakistan and had as many world class enemies as Iran has accumulated - would you give up your pursuit of a nuclear weapon?

Rosneft, Gazprom and the Government: the Decision-making Triangle on Russia's Energy Policy

Date de publication
03 March 2014
Accroche

Russia finds itself exposed to many risks in the fast-moving global revolution in energy affairs, and cannot avail of its opportunities despite its unique combination of natural resources and experience in their exploitation. It has entered the phase of economic stagnation, and the under-performance of the energy sector is one of the key determinants of the durability of this trend.

The Amphibious Endeavour: Tactical Risk, Strategic Influence

Date de publication
26 February 2014
Accroche

Despite a centuries-long history, amphibious operations were rarely in the spotlight before the Second World War. Meteorological constraints and joint planning challenges both emphasize their risky and complex character. Lessons learned highlight indispensable operational requirements such as superior naval power, favourable strength ratio for disembarked forces and the advantage of surprise.

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