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The Erosion of Strategic Stability and the Future of Arms Control in Europe

Date de publication
09 November 2018
Accroche

The instruments of cooperative security created during and since the Cold War to foster mutual confidence and reduce the risks of war, inadvertent escalation, and arms races, in and around Europe, have come under increasing strain.

Asia–Africa Growth Corridor at the crossroads of business and geopolitics

Date de publication
08 November 2018
Accroche

The Asia–Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) — a Japan–India initiative to promote connectivity between Asia and East Africa and encourage joint projects in Africa — is often misrepresented. All too often, the AAGC is depicted as a political move aimed exclusively at countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Northern Europe’s Strategic Challenge from Russia: What Political and Military Responses?

Date de publication
29 October 2018
Accroche

The return of more conflictual relations between Russia and the West following Russia’s intervention in Eastern Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea has led to a deterioration in the strategic environment for Northern European countries, particularly in the Baltic Sea Region and the Arctic.

The US Oil Embargo on Iran: A New Oil Shock?

Date de publication
17 October 2018
Accroche

The 14 July 2015 Vienna agreement on Iran’s nuclear activities (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPoA) was a game changer on the geopolitics in the Middle East and for the oil market. The oil sanctions were lifted and Iran increased significantly its production and exports. On 8 May 2018, President Trump announced that the United Stated (US) would withdraw from the agreement. Financial sanctions were reintroduced. From 5 November 2018 onwards, further sanctions will be re-imposed more specifically on petroleum related transactions, including the purchase of petroleum, petroleum products and petrochemical products. What could be the impact of this new embargo? Is there a risk of a new oil supply and price shock?

Intelligence artificielle : vers une nouvelle révolution militaire ?

Date de publication
16 October 2018
Accroche

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a priority defense issue for the military powers of the 21st century. Unsurprisingly, the United States and China are currently at the forefront of this new digitalized arms race. 

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The Next Wave of Global LNG Investment Is Coming

Date de publication
16 October 2018
Accroche

With an annual growth of 10% in 2017 to 290 million tons (Mt) and 8.3% in the first half of 2018,​ Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) demand is rising faster than expected. Accounting for 44% of global demand growth in 2017, China is the main driver of the growth as the government has made natural gas a key policy choice to reduce air pollution and restructure its high-carbon energy mix. 

The Wider Context: Germany's Baltic Engagement, the ‘Munich Consensus’ and the Future of European Security

Date de publication
16 October 2018
Accroche
Due to its size and economic and political weight in Europe, Germany is an important actor in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). Berlin has chosen to play an active role: the Bundeswehr’s presence in Lithuania as part of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP), but also proposals pertaining to Baltic Sea Cooperation within the Council of the Baltic Sea States, of which Germany is a founding member, are examples of German engagement in the region. Beyond the regional dimension, however, Germany’s engagement in the BSR needs to be seen in the wider context of German foreign, security and defence policy.
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Brexit, Electricity and the No-Deal Scenario: Perspectives from Continental Europe, Ireland and the UK

Date de publication
15 October 2018
Accroche

When it comes to energy and electricity in particular, there can be no winner in the Brexit negotiations. The only reasonable objective should be to minimise losses and avoid trade friction.

Carole MATHIEU Steve PYE Paul DEANE

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