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Russia's Eastern Direction - Distinguishing the Real from the Virtual

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Russie.NEI.Reports
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The Asia-Pacific region has assumed primary importance as a center of global politics and economic dynamism. For Moscow, this development highlights a world in which many long-standing assumptions about international politics are being overturned. It speaks of “global power … shifting to the East,” and of Russia becoming involved in the “dynamic integration processes in the ‘new Asia".” But for all the rhetoric about a “turn to the East”, Russia’s commitment to serious engagement with the Asia-Pacific is uncertain. Its elite retains a strongly Western-centric world-view, even as it criticizes Western shortcomings.

Corps analyses

Although Moscow has begun to appreciate Asia as important in and of itself, it is mainly concerned to assert Russia as an “independent” Eurasian center of power within the “polycentric system of international relations”. Cooperation with Asian countries is the means to a larger end rather than the end itself. The outcome of these contradictions is predictably mixed. On the one hand, Moscow is investing greater effort into the Asia-Pacific—a focus heightened by the critical importance of the “strategic partnership” with China, the vulnerability of the Russian Far East, and the need to diversify energy exports. On the other hand, Russia remains a peripheral actor in the region—a country that may be in Asia, but is far from being of Asia. The Kremlin’s tendency to see international relations primarily in terms of Great Power relations means, in particular, that it does not have an Asia policy so much as a policy toward the major Asian powers, above all China. Over the next decade, Putin will continue to prioritize the relationship with Beijing, and Russia’s China-dependence will increase despite efforts to diversify ties with Japan, Vietnam, and India. Economic engagement will be dominated by energy exports, although Russia will be a niche rather than primary supplier of Asian requirements. More generally, the Asia-Pacific will remain a secondary “vector” for Moscow, and the vision of Russia as a “Euro-Pacific power” aspirational at best.

 

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978-2-36567-226-9

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Russia's Eastern Direction - Distinguishing the Real from the Virtual

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Bobo_Lo

Bobo LO

Intitulé du poste

Chercheur associé, Centre Russie/Eurasie de l'Ifri

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Russie, Eurasie, Carte
Russia/Eurasia Center
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Founded in 2005 within Ifri, the Russia/Eurasia Center conducts research and organizes debates on Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Its goal is to understand and anticipate the evolution of this complex and rapidly changing geographical area in order to enrich public discourse in France and Europe and to assist in strategic, political, and economic decision-making.

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Russia and the New BRICS Countries: Potentials and Limitations of a Scientific and Technological Cooperation

Date de publication
23 September 2024
Accroche

At the fifteenth BRICS summit, held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from August 22 to 24, 2023, a resolution was adopted to extend an invitation to six new countries to join the organization: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). All of these countries except Argentina duly became members of BRICS in 2024, with the expanded group known as BRICS+. In addition to the political and economic advantages, it is assumed that the incorporation of these new countries could potentially facilitate their scientific and technological development.

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The South Caucasus: A New Strategic Space?

Date de publication
10 September 2024
Accroche

The states of the South Caucasus are trying to find their footing in an increasingly fragmented international landscape.

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Russia in the Arctic: The End of Illusions and the Emergence of Strategic Realignments

Date de publication
31 July 2024
Accroche

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered profound changes in the Arctic region, the consequences of which remain uncertain in the long term.

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Between Aspiration and Reality: Russia in the World (Dis)order

Date de publication
17 June 2024
Accroche

The world has rarely seemed more disorderly than it is today. But in this anarchic environment, some things are constant. 

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Russia's Eastern Direction - Distinguishing the Real from the Virtual