The ups and downs of the Israel-Palestine peace process have made way for a non-conventional war that is all too real: this about-turn can be explained by Israel's political radicalisation (Ariel Sharon's nationalism and the fight against terrorism sanctioned by the 9/11 attacks) and Yassir Arafat's loss of international prestige (suicide bombings and fractures in the Palestinian Authority). In order to respond to new U.S. demands, Arafat has to cut himself off from a society that believes that a war of attrition is the only response to occupation, and undertake democratic reforms of the AP-imposed as a necessary condition to the restart of peace negotiations. Apart from an even more bloody conflict taking hold, the present impasse is a threat to the stability of the entire region, with no improvement in view.

May Chartouni-Dubarry is a Researcher at Ifri (Mediterranean and Middle East issues).

This content is published in French - L'après-Oslo : paix avortée ou guerre annoncée ?