To create a political shift that draws a line under conflict once and for all, it is not always enough to draft a democratic constitution and call elections. 

Mauritania's political system displays certain democratic qualities that go some way to meeting international standards.

Elections are held on a regular basis in various African countries, but democracy is far from flourishing.

In most of the pathways that limit global warming to 1.5°C, capture of CO₂ from fossil-fuel or biomass-based installations and its long-term geological storage (carbon capture and storage - CCS and bio-energy with carbon capture and storage - BECCS) plays a crucial role.

While international multilateralism is under strain, it is vital for France and Germany to defend it, since it is the most appropriate system for preserving their interests – particularly in terms of welfare, security, prosperity and environmental protection. Against this backdrop, three political fields offer opportunities for joint initiatives: trade, conventional arms control and climate change.

Whether we think of France, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland, Austria or Germany, the social democratic or socialist parties in Europe are losing ground or even facing dissolution. Ironically, the crisis of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) began with the resounding victory of Gerhard Schröder in 1998.

The EU is currently undergoing serious challenges from inside such as Brexit and strengthening Euroscepticism, rising populism and changing political geography, anti-immigration moods as well as retarded economic recovery.

On the eve of the 25th anniversary of democracy in South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) still holds power in a nearly hegemonic way. Nevertheless, the popularity of the party is decreasing while economic and social inequalities are deeply entrenched in the country.

The eighth position paper of the Daniel Vernet Group addresses immigration, integration and cohesion in Europe where migration is often perceived as a threat to cohesion within societies and also among states. In the paper, the Daniel Vernet Group argues that migration and cohesion are not contradictory. However, Germany and France need to develop common approaches in order to encourage the finding of European answers to these challenges.

Understanding Algeria’s various Islamist communities—including militant groups, moderate factions, and grassroots movements—offers a window into the country’s uncertain sociopolitical future.

French battery cell manufacturer Saft and Opel, the German subsidiary of automaker PSA Group, are finalising the details of a major investment project in battery cell manufacturing. Is the European Union (EU) finally challenging Asia’s dominance on battery cells production? What chances of success for the European Battery Alliance (EBA) and what implications for the EU industrial policy?

The low-carbon energy transition in France, the European Union (EU) and the world is today taking place unevenly and too slowly to preserve the climate and biodiversity. CO₂ emissions are continuing to rise, while governments’ commitments are insufficient: in the long-term, the world is set to see temperatures increase by +3°C. Efforts to fund adaptation measures still need to be strengthened considerably.

Central Asia is conventionally seen as a conflicting space for great powers.

China increasingly sees its flagship foreign policy project as a tool for restructuring global governance and a vector for promoting a new form of globalization.

Ten years after the January 2009 gas crisis, Russian-Ukrainian gas relations are at another turning point: the then concluded contracts are terminating on 31 December 2019. While trilateral talks brokered by the European Commission (EC) have started in July 2018, the real negotiations about the future of this relationship can be expected to start no earlier than in December, that is in the midst of the winter and a second to midnight. Crucial months lie ahead.

Russia’s comeback to Africa has been widely discussed since 2017.

Japan’s policies in post-Soviet Central Asia, similarly to its actions in other Asian subregions, have often been interpreted recently as reactions to China’s advances – in particular, the Belt and Road Initiative. This first impression can be misleading.

At a time when the European Union (EU) is discussing its long-term climate strategy and drafting new legislation to foster the decarbonization of its gas sector, a close look at the experience of Denmark, Germany and Italy with renewable gas production can provide valuable lessons. 

Since mid-2012, in the wake of the global financial crisis, China has sought to reinvigorate relations with Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), notably through the creation of the 16+1 formula.

Under President Macron, France has staked out a positive but principled position towards China's BRI.

What makes the militia milieu so unique and important for understanding today’s Russia is that it finds itself at the intersection of state institutions, patronage mechanisms, criminal structures, and grassroots illiberal activism.

Since February 22, thousands and then millions of Algerians have taken to the streets every Friday to protest against the fifth term of their ailing eighty-two-year-old president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

This text was published in Politique étrangère in 1979, the year in which the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) was created.

The last four decades have witnessed the profound transformation of the very foundations of the international system: the globalization of trade, technical revolutions, the upheaval of the hierarchy of powers, the emergence of China, the explosion of the Middle-East, the mutation of conflicts and threats, climate concerns, etc.

Urbanization is a relentless trend, and as cities grow and expand, armed conflict and violence are urbanizing as well. 

Of Russia’s 146 million citizens (if we include those in Crimea), 63 million—or 43 percent—are under 34 years of age. Of these, 30 million belong to Generation Y (millennials in their 20s and early 30s), 15 million belong to Gen Z (teenagers), and a further 18 million are part of the youngest generation (less than 10 years of age).

Like the proverbial cat, some concepts have several lives. Or, like the mythological phoenix, they can be reborn from the ashes. This is certainly the case of the Intermarium, a geopolitical concept that envisaged an alliance of countries reaching from the Baltic Sea over the Black Sea to the Aegean Sea that would serve as a third power bloc between Germany and Russia.

During the 19th century, Westerners provided ideological justifications for their colonization, namely spreading the Enlightenment across the globe. This project was received favorably until the second half of the 20th century. Over the last 20 years, it has met new hostility. The “universal values” promoted by the West are viewed today as a form of imperialism to be opposed – especially by China, Russia and Turkey.

The notion of power has long been a topic of study in international relations. In the coming decade, the evolution of power will be characterized by the dynamics of concentration and dispersion. On the one hand, the global system will be marked by the clash of two superpowers, the United States and China. On the other hand, capacity for individual action will proliferate through information and communication technologies.

Asians were dominated and sometimes humiliated by Westerners during the last two centuries. Today, they look to the future with confidence. In 2050, the world’s two leading powers are likely to be China and India. The great Asian Renaissance will lead to geopolitical upheavals. China-US tensions are already visible and conflicts may emerge between Asian powers. Yet the clash of civilizations is not inevitable.

The wars ravaging the Middle East are not destined to continue forever and the region is not condemned to being governed by autocrats. A transition to a more just order for the region’s populations is possible, but will take time. It is unlikely to happen by 2029. Progress will be gradual, pushed by civil society. New revolutions are possible, although it is not sure they will lead to greater democracy.

Real progress in diversification in some economic areas, as well as improvements in public policies, have modified the general conditions of development on the African continent since the 2000s. In politics, apart from the demands of formal representative democracy, states need to be reconstructed in order to integrate marginalized regions and develop regional and continental co-operation.

In the last 10 years, European integration has suffered several shocks. These shocks have challenged the historical narrative of the European Union, and have profoundly affected policies, as well as support by the peoples of Europe for the EU project. The real risk of disintegration can only be avoided if Member States accept to overhaul European integration, based on the idea of “civilizing globalization” and adopting corresponding policies grounded in solidarity.

New technologies, particularly in cyberspace, have a strong impact on international relations and conflict. Malicious actors, be they lstates or non-state actors, have developed sophisticated means of influence. They tend to coordinate their physical and cyber activities with ever-greater precision. The security strategies of Western states need to change as a result and cease operating in silos.

Demographic forecasting is not an exact science. UN projections, which suggest that the world population may rise to 11.2 billion in 2100, could be overestimates. Indeed, fertility could fall more rapidly and life expectancy may rise less than expected. The Sahel is set to experience the most spectacular demographic explosion, but this will not necessarily lead to massive migration to Europe.

Forecasting in areas of strategy is particularly delicate as predictions may impact the course of events. While several major trends in the evolution of conflicts during the next decade can be identified, precise forecasts are impossible. Yet one thing is certain: in the next 10 years, decision-makers face unknown risks of significant consequence.

Renewable energies are experiencing rapid growth, due not only to their limited impact on the environment but also to shrinking costs. To fight climate change, new investments in low carbon technologies are necessary. Apart from its positive aspects, the energy transition carries risks, notably geopolitical. The notion of energy security will be profoundly modified. These risks can be anticipated and managed.

Thanks to strong economic growth, poverty has tended to fall worldwide. But the trend is not sufficient to eradicate poverty by 2030. For this, growth would have to rise further and inequalities fall. Non-economic dimensions of well-being, such as education and health, also need to be taken into account. This assumes that governments in particular have the capacity to invest in public infrastructures.

The trade war between the United States and China is not only due to Donald Trump’s impulsiveness. Its roots are in fact profound and follow three structural changes in the multilateral trading system: the reversal of comparative advantages, the now central role of certain developing countries, and the re-balancing of power that makes coordination between states difficult. In this context, the future of world trade has yet to be written.

Following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the international community sought new stability in the financial system and the assurance of sustained growth. The crisis that began in 2007-2008 has revealed weaknesses that affected advanced economies first and foremost. Efforts have since been made to consolidate the international financial architecture, to coordinate macroeconomic policy, and to improve foreign exchange relations, even if this latter objective has proven complex.