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Russia's Far East Policy: Looking Beyond China

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Russie.Eurasie.Visions
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La politique russe en Extrême-Orient : quelle alternative à la Chine ?
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Russian writers like Dmitri Trenin have called developing the Russian Far East (RFE) a civilizational task. At the same time Moscow has acknowledged that developing the RFE is the foundation for any successful Russian claim to an independent great power status in Asia. 

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Yet careful examination of Russian relations with the major Northeast Asian powers: China, Japan, and South Korea, strongly suggests that Russia has failed at this task and that its economic-political system is the primary reason for this failure. Given the stakes involved, this failure has consequences, namely Russia's excessive reliance on China to assist in the development of the RFE. During 2009-10 we saw this growth in Chinese power as China bailed out Russian oil producers on condition that in East Asia they supply China alone with oil. Russia also had to attach its development plans for the RFE to China's regional development plan for Northeast China. Thus Moscow's failure to move forward sufficiently with both Tokyo and Seoul leaves it with no option but to depend on Beijing as the power that will define the nature of its role in northeast Asia.

 

Stephen Blank is Professor of Russian National Security Studies at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College in Pennsylvania.

Russie.Nei.Visions is an electronic collection of policy papers published in French, English and Russian by the Russia/NIS Center, Ifri.

 

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978-2-86592-760-9

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Russia's Far East Policy: Looking Beyond China

Decoration
Author(s)
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Russie, Eurasie, Carte
Russia/Eurasia Center
Accroche centre

Founded in 2005 within Ifri, the Russia/Eurasia Center conducts research and organizes debates on Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Its goal is to understand and anticipate the evolution of this complex and rapidly changing geographical area in order to enrich public discourse in France and Europe and to assist in strategic, political, and economic decision-making.

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The Caspian Sea as an Emerging Energy Hub : Potentials and Limitations

Date de publication
07 February 2025
Accroche

This report analyzes the prospects of the Caspian Sea region — and its key actors except for Russia and Iran — becoming an important energy hub serving the needs of the European Union (EU). 

Sergey SUKHANKIN
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The European Union's Strategic Test in Georgia

Date de publication
27 January 2025
Accroche

The political crisis brewing in Georgia is of an existential nature for the country. What is at stake is Georgia's future as a democratic and sovereign European nation (EU).

Teona GIUASHVILI
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Commanders of Putin's Long War: Purged, Reshuffled and Disgruntled

Date de publication
10 December 2024
Accroche

The trend of reshuffling the Russian top military command in the course of a fast-evolving and far from successful war has progressed unevenly both across the Armed Forces’ structures and in time. The rationale for and timing of the abrupt cadre decisions made by Commander-in-Chief Putin often defy logical explanation, and the rare official clarifications are no more informative than the usual information blackout. 

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Russian Military Manpower After Two and a Half Years of War in Ukraine

Date de publication
25 November 2024
Accroche

In addition to a military victory in Ukraine, the Russian leadership is planning to build up sizable troop formations for a possible conflict with NATO in the Baltic region and the Kola Peninsula. In particular, current plans aim for the military manpower to grow by about 350,000, reaching a total of 1.5 million soldiers and commanders. In the context of the current conflict in Ukraine, this cannot be accomplished without a new wave of mass mobilization. 

Yuri E. FEDOROV

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La politique russe en Extrême-Orient : quelle alternative à la Chine ?

Russia's Far East Policy: Looking Beyond China