New Impulses for Stagnant Relationships - German-French Ministerial Council Meets in a New Format
As the doors of the illustrious Hôtel Beauharnais on Rue de Lille 78 swung open on the evening of 4 October, and the masses streamed into the German Embassy in Paris to celebrate German Unity Day, the reports of the currently strained state of Franco-German relations seemed almost surreal.
The End of a Happy Parenthesis. How the War in UkraineI Is Forcing Germany to Rethink Its Model
The period of peace, economic prosperity, and political stability that Germany has experienced since the end of the Cold War ends with the Ukrainian war. The shock wave of this conflict particularly hit its economy and thereby undermines the foundations on which Germany had based its power, its international influence and established its identity.
Europe's Space Sector: Caught in a Strategic Stranglehold
Europe's space sector is currently faced with great difficulties, marked by the temporary loss of autonomous access to space, strong competition from the USA, and the transformation of the satellite market.
Europe: Turning to the Union to Respond to Citizens
To deal with the internal and external challenges of a new era, the European Union must reform its institutions: review Member States' right of veto, strengthen the Commission, and take action on foreign policy and security matters, energy, the single market and the economy, social policy, health and immigration—while at the same time considering expansion. This is the only way for the Union to preserve the values of freedom and democracy that underlie European integration.
European Union: A Geopolitical Illusion?
The European Union (EU) is holding firm in the face of the war in Ukraine—perhaps better than expected. But what long-term effects will the war have on European institutions and policies? The institutions will need to be changed to cope with the forthcoming expansions. The EU has certainly made progress toward common industrial and technological policies. But will this dynamic do away with a conception of strategic autonomy, encompassing both diplomacy and strategy? The European Union, which will undoubtedly be a key mover of future changes for the continent, remains largely uncertain in terms of its future configurations.
A framework for a Win-Win Europe-Africa Energy and Climate Partnership
North-South tensions are exacerbated at a time of unprecedented turmoil for both Europeans and Africans. European polycrises (geopolitical, energy-related and economic) echo the systematic vulnerability of Africans, which is reinforced by external shocks.
Türkiye’s Stifled Ambitions
As its elections have unfolded this spring, Türkiye has again shown itself to be symptomatic of the times. Across the world, numerous political regimes oscillate between democratic forms of government and an authoritarian concentration of power; impressive periods of growth give way to inflation and recession; and international deregulation gives rise to widespread diplomacy in an effort to juggle a myriad of shifting political loyalties. Faced with the war in Ukraine, Ankara is playing a strong hand by enlarging its areas of presence and intervention. Türkiye is more important to its partners than ever, independent of its eventual domestic trajectory.
Western discourse predicted the advent of Chinese dominance in the very short term, but events have taken a rather different turn. The drivers that enabled the unprecedented growth of recent decades seem to have run out of steam. Moreover, the outcome of Beijing’s economic strategies is still uncertain, in a context shaped primarily by U.S. policies. China’s influence in the future will be considerable, but the direction its rebound will take remains unclear.
For Europeans, the events in Ukraine and the thorny issue of the Sino-American rivalry cannot paper over the other security problems we face: On what common vision of our history and future will we build the Europe of tomorrow? Has drug trafficking already changed the nature of our societies? Can we afford to turn away from instances of destabilization in Africa, from the Horn to the Sahel?
The Strategic Repositioning of LNG: Implications for Key Trade Routes and Choke Points
2022 saw the climax so far of the weaponization of energy. Following its geopolitical demise, Russia has undertaken its own gas amputation, moving from a super energy power status to a diminished role with uncertain prospects and only hard options left.
China/United States: Europe off Balance
As French President Emmanuel Macron (accompanied by Ursula von der Leyen) is on a state visit to China, some twenty Ifri researchers decipher the stakes of the U.S./China/Europe strategic triangle.
Food Systems in the Pacific: Addressing Challenges in Cooperation with Europe
More frequent climate disasters, rising sea levels, the economic fallout of Covid-19 lockdowns, border closures, supply chain constraints, and the global impact of the war in Ukraine have aggravated the challenge of maintaining sustainable and resilient food systems for Pacific Island Countries (PICs).
European Strategic Autonomy and the Biden Presidency
Some twenty international personalities from different horizons and backgrounds were asked to reflect on the impact of the Biden presidency for the future of European strategic autonomy.
Collective Collapse or Resilience? European Defense Priorities in the Pandemic Era
To what extent has the COVID-19 pandemic affected defense priorities across Europe?
Towards the Second Crusade?
Europeans first grew aware of a possible pandemic exactly one year ago. The wave is here. It has submerged the world, claiming many lives and causing tremendous collateral damage.
Guerres invisibles - Nos prochains défis géopolitiques
What are the next geopolitical challenges of the century? The global pandemic has altered the equilibrium between Asia and the West and sealed the rift between China and the United States, accentuating the world’s shift towards the East. On this polarized chessboard, two fault lines converge: environmental degradation and technological propagation where the main strategic and economic rivalries are now being played out.
China's Ambitions in Space: The Sky's the Limit
From the dawn of China’s space program in the mid-1950s to the ability to build, launch and operate satellites in low Earth and geosynchronous orbits from the 1980s, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is in 2021 a complete space power with autonomous access to outer space and to deep-space exploration.
The German Green Party, a new People's Party?
In the context of increasing awareness of the climate crisis, environmental parties across the EU obtained high scores in the European elections of May 2019, reaching 20% in Germany, 17% in Ireland, 16% in Finland and 13 % in France. Meanwhile, far-right parties gained strength.
Rivals in Arms: The Rise of UK-France Defence Relations in the Twenty-First Century
The untold story of the thriving yet complicated defense relationship of two countries caught between strategic decline and global ambitions. As the UK leaves the European Union and as the multilateral international order is increasingly under stress, bilateral security links are more important than ever. Among such relationships, the UK-France partnership has become particularly critical in the past decades.
Europe in the World: for a Modest and Effective Reform
This sad year ends with a pandemic that continues in full swing over a large part of the planet, especially in the United States and Europe, with no other reassuring prospect than that of one or more vaccines, which is already a lot. But that’s not the subject I want to focus on in this eighth letter, the last one for 2020. Internationally, two other facts have dominated the scene in recent months.
Space as a Key Element of Europe's Digital Sovereignty
At the end of year 2020, the European space sector finds itself at a crossroads between challenges and opportunities. While the 2019 European Space Agency (ESA) Ministerial Conference marked a progression in terms of budgets, a sign of renewed space ambitions, the technological and financial acceleration from the United States represents a disruptive scenario that poses threats to the continuity of European space capabilities.
Revolutionary by Design: The US National Security State and Commercialization in the US Space Sector
The US space sector, comprised of its government organizations and its commercial industry, is leading the revolution in space, often called "new space".
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