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In a speech at Davos this year, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU intends “to engage and deepen our relationship with China and where possible, even to expand our trade and investment ties.”

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The “one China” principle is Beijing’s official stance that there is one China, Taiwan is a part of China and the People’s Republic of China is the sole legitimate government of China. Some European countries have endorsed this stance. A “one China” policy, on the other hand, was adopted by the U.S. and others to normalize relations with China while reserving some ambiguity about China’s claim to Taiwan. There are multiple variations of the “one China” policy — the U.S. “recognizes” the PRC’s claim to Taiwan, while others in Europe and elsewhere “understand,” “respect” or “take note of” this claim. The EU supports the standard version of the one China policy, although it isn’t technically formalized in any agreement with China. 

Europe’s varied stances on “one China” — as outlined in normalization agreements — don’t necessarily correlate with how much support they each give to China at the expense of Taiwan today. France endorsed the “one China” principle in the 1960s but has evolved toward a “one China” policy that reflects the EU’s and maintains robust unofficial relations with Taiwan. Lithuania signed a normalization agreement endorsing the “one China” principle in the 1990s but got into hot water with Beijing in 2021 for allowing Taiwan to open a de facto embassy for “Taiwan” instead of Beijing’s preferred “Taipei.” In contrast, while Spain maintains its alignment with the EU’s “one China” policy in official statements, Spain has been notoriously hostile to Taiwan. In 2017, Spain extradited 300 Taiwanese nationals to China at Beijing’s request.

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Marc Julienne, director of the Center for Asia Studies at the French Institute of International Relations, highlighted the affinity that the EU and its member states feel toward Taiwan’s democratic story and their shared values as reasons why Europe is unlikely to shift its stance on Taiwan, even in the face of Chinese pressure. “Many people in Europe, especially in the member states and the European Parliament are very friendly with Taiwan.” This is increasingly true. European delegations to Taiwan have come in droves and Von der Leyen’s discourse on Taiwan increased quantitatively and qualitatively over 2023 to 2024, according to Julienne. Short of changes to their one China policies, if Europe leans toward China in the coming months and years, we might see fewer delegations to Taiwan or Taiwan mentioned fewer times by European leaders, Julienne said.

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>Read the full article on Domino Theory.