Europe Tempted by Closer Relations With China Following Trump’s Hostility, but Barriers to Cooperation Persist
While U.S. Vice President JD Vance left Europe reeling at the Munich Security Conference last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (王毅) met with several European officials on the sidelines. At the U.N. Security Council a few days later, China pushed for greater European involvement in peace negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Beijing is capitalizing upon U.S. President Donald Trump’s souring of relations with Europe by launching a new charm offensive on the continent. China wants closer economic ties and to counter U.S. influence through strategic engagement with Europe. But will this work? Experts are not so sure.
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But the experts interviewed for this article largely agreed that there are some significant barriers to friendlier Europe-China relations. On the security front, China is not a replacement for the U.S. “Just because the United States has become a less reliable partner … that doesn’t mean that China has become more reliable,” said Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, assistant professor at National Dong Hwa University and an expert in EU-China relations, adding that “[it] is totally up to us to get our house in order.”
France, in particular, has been a prominent advocate for strategic autonomy, or the idea that in the absence of sufficient security guarantees from the U.S., the EU needs to bolster its own defenses. Marc Julienne, director of the Center for Asia Studies at the French Institute of International Relations, hopes that strategic autonomy will now gain momentum in Europe because “we are facing a situation [where] even NATO is in question.”
On trade, there are obstacles to China-Europe cooperation as well. As Julienne explained, China’s economy is currently producing more than the market can absorb, partly because it relies on exports to support economic growth, particularly following the real estate crisis. One significant point of tension is the electric vehicle industry, which Julienne believes is the most important economic and political challenge Europe faces from China:
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China can kill the European automotive industry, and it’s not just France and Germany. It concerns almost all European states, because all countries in Europe either produce cars or produce components for the car industry. This represents roughly 3 million jobs in Europe.
Director, Center for Asian Studies, Ifri
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Another obstacle to more Europe-China economic cooperation arises from political misalignments. Julienne highlighted the failure of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment as an example of this. The 400-page agreement was the result of seven years and over 30 rounds of negotiation. It promised to increase market access and standardize rules about transparency of subsidies, forced technology transfer and sustainable development. China and the European Commission finally signed the agreement in 2020, but “it was then frozen by the [EU] Parliament, because there were so many political divergences between China and Europe — on Uyghurs, on Covid-19, on so many things,” said Julienne. The agreement likely won’t be ratified in the future due to the widespread sentiment that small investment benefits should not override profound political differences.
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Speaking on France’s experience, Julienne says that the negotiation of economic and political interests in China has shifted. French leaders used to balance human rights concerns against multi-billion-euro contracts, but this era is over. Now France tends to balance human rights concerns against million-euro contracts, which are largely limited to specific sectors (like agriculture) and take months to negotiate. “Before [France’s relationship with China] was plenty of opportunities and a few challenges and now there are almost no opportunities and only challenges” said Julienne.
A final factor that will mediate closer economic ties between the EU and China has to do with the EU’s policy of derisking. Introduced by von der Leyen in 2023, the EU has been working to “de-risk” its supply chains without decoupling from China — i.e., reducing outsized dependencies while still emphasizing economic engagement.
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If there is any negotiation of trade relations between the EU and China in the coming months and years, Julienne believes that this can and should be done with the understanding that Europe is not in a disadvantageous position vis-a-vis China just because its relationship with the U.S. is under threat — the reality is that China relies on the European market. “I’m not saying that we should cut off ties with China. I think we need to cooperate more, but on an equal footing and be very, very demanding, very firm in what we are asking,” said Julienne, adding that “if we start to engage China with all naivety and without any levers, without any teeth, China will take advantage of that.”
>Read the full article on Domino Theory.
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