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Numerology in the Second Nuclear Age

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Proliferation Papers
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Numerology in the Second Nuclear Age
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The nuclear numbers game has changed. During the Cold War, deterrence strategists claimed that the nuclear balance mattered, even at extraordinarily high numbers. By this musty logic, the United States now has more deterrence leverage against Russia than at any time since the Soviet nuclear build-up in the 1960s. This paper contends that nuclear "numerology", centered around "prompt hard-target kill" capabilities and nuclear exchange ratios, provides extremely modest political leverage. The “delicate balance of terror” that Western deterrence strategists worried about so obsessively during the Cold War now sounds like the laments of an ancient, interred religion. New nuclear dangers are now reducible by cooperative threat reduction initiatives rather than by increasing warheads, yields, and throw-weights.

 

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978-2-592-618-3

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Numerology in the Second Nuclear Age

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Security Studies Center
Accroche centre

Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

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EUDIS, HEDI, DIANA: What's behind Three Defense Innovation Acronyms?

Date de publication
25 September 2024
Accroche

In Europe, with Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine showing little sign of abating, a persistent gap remains between security needs and defense spending. According to a 2006 commitment enshrined at the 2014 Wales NATO summit, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members should disburse no less than 2% of their national gross domestic product (GDP) on defense, out of which 20% is to be spent on equipment and research and development. In 2024, only 23 Allies out of 32 are expected to meet or exceed this target, though a significant improvement from only three in 2014. This total includes the United States (US) devoting 3.38% of its GDP to defense, constituting almost 70% of all NATO member defense spending combined. 

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From Ukraine to Gaza: Military Uses of Artificial Intelligence

Date de publication
10 September 2024
Accroche

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza show us the extent to which artificial intelligence (AI) has become integral to battlefield operations. 

French thinking on AI integration and interaction with nuclear command and control, force structure, and decision-making

Date de publication
13 November 2023
Accroche

This paper analyses the French literature on France’s perception of military AI, especially its consequences on strategic systems and competition, and nuclear deterrence.

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The Future of Europe’s Strategic Deterrence is (also) at Sea

Date de publication
11 June 2024
Accroche

A cursory look at both France and the UK suggests that the future of European nuclear deterrence is at sea.

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Numerology in the Second Nuclear Age

Numerology in the Second Nuclear Age