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To Attack or Not to Attack: Israel Confronts a Dramatic Decision

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To attack or not to attack: Israel confronts a dramatic decision
Accroche

In the heat of the public discussion on the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that he has not yet decided whether to attack Iran. At the same time, partly in response to opponents of such an attack, he made it clear that the risk of harm to the home front at this point, when Iran still does not have nuclear weapons, is dwarfed by the risks involved in an attack on Israel after Iran has gone nuclear.

Corps analyses

Against this background, inter alia, the feverish activity in recent weeks by Netanyahu, his supporters, and the prime minister’s bureau to convince those who are sitting on the fence or have reservations about the possibility of an attack on Iran to change their position, is especially noteworthy. In this context, it was announced that the Prime Minister had succeeded in persuading Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman to join the supporters of an attack on Iran. In addition, the Prime Minister’s bureau has undertaken an intensive media campaign against President Shimon Peres, who has spoken out against an Israeli attack on Iran. The appointment of Kadima member Avi Dichter, who is known to support an attack on Iran, as minister of Home front defense, is also connected to this issue.

Undoubtedly, the Iranian issue presents Israeli decision makers, and in particular, Prime Minister Netanyahu, with a magnitude of fateful decisions. We believe that the public discussion of this issue is positive in and of itself in a democratic society like Israel. Nevertheless, it is likely to cause damage to the country if it spills over into detailed information about operational issues, and especially, if Israel’s capabilities and limitations vis-à-vis Iran are discussed. As long as it remains on the political level and does not get into details of limitations and capabilities, it must be conducted within a serious framework for discussion, professional and politically impartial. Within this framework, it is legitimate for there to be disagreements. Below we will attempt to examine the main questions the Prime Minister will seek to answer when he decides about an attack on Iran.

 

Decoration

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978-2-36567-057-9

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To Attack or Not to Attack: Israel Confronts a Dramatic Decision

Decoration
Author(s)
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Süleymaniye Mosque, Istanbul, Türkiye
Turkey/Middle East Program
Accroche centre

Ifri's Turkey/Middle East Program aims to provide expertise on the trends and developments in politics, societies and economies across the region.

The programme has the following objectives:

  • Proposing a new approach towards the MENA region through an analysis of local, regional, and international dynamics with the potential to guide and influence new policies.
  • Highlighting the role of foreign powers which have traditionally been present in the region and analyzing the new role taken on by emerging countries ;
  • Anticipating new directions and outlooks in each country.
  • Interpreting risks and potentials and putting forward new templates for analysis.

The programme has built a dense network of researchers and experts who provide expertise on the MENA region and working together on a range of crosscutting themes.

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Date de publication
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Accroche

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Israel-Palestine: One Solution, Two States

Date de publication
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While the May 2023 parliamentary and presidential elections looked as a difficult test for the flagging Islamo-conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP), they eventually held on to power, demonstrating their remarkable foothold in the Turkish context. The party notably recorded one of its highest scores in Konya, confirming the massive and uninterrupted support of this two-million inhabitants central Anatolian city for Turkish political Islam.

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Balancing Security and Innovation: Opposition's View on Turkey's Digital Policies

Date de publication
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The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey on May 14, 2023, are expected to be closely contested. Polls suggest that the ruling AK Party-led People’s Alliance will lose its majority in parliament, resulting in a hung lower house. 

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To Attack or Not to Attack: Israel Confronts a Dramatic Decision