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Abstract

Even though its political and psycological effects on the societies of the Middle East have yet to become clear, the Iraq war has had a major impact on the geopolitical setting in the region. Its repercussions on the domestic and international politics of the States in the Middle East are contingent, though. The main determinants for whether or not a new regional order and a trend towards political liberalisation in Arab states are to be expected, are the success or failure of the US. to both stabilize Iraq and establish an acceptable political order in that country, as well as the development of the Arab-Israeli conflict and peace-process. Europe has an interest in furthering the stabilization of Iraq. To achieve that, the political context there has to change –from a state of occupation to a state of internationally supervised reconstruction. Above that, Europe needs to develop its own agenda for change in the Near and Middle Eastern neighbourhood.

Volker Perthes is the Head of the Research Group on Africa and the Middle East at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik within the Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit (Berlin).