A historic watershed can be defined as the springing up of uncertainty in the flow of time. What was natural and everlasting becomes precarious and debatable. What makes watersheds so uneasy to be grappled with is their unstable mixing up of objectivity and subjectivity. Three recent examples help to understand the dynamic ambiguities of a watershed. 1898-1991, closing the break of 1914, and promising the universal spread of democracy and peace, becomes much more ambivalent all along the 1990s, pushing forward the frustrations of globalisation. September 11th, 2001, has stimulated so many millenarian commentaries. What has been so violently stressed by this tragedy is the maturing of global rebellions or delinquencies, globalization multiplying comparisons and envy between societies, groups, and individuals, and supplying huge resources (money, men, weapons...) to any entrepreneurial person. In 2003, the Iraq War has been initiated to create a watershed in the Middle East, but will it succeed to break decades or centuries of humiliation and bitterness?

Philippe Moreau Defarges is a Research Fellow at Ifri.

This content is published in French : Plus rien ne sera comme avant - Ruptures et ordres internationaux