Abstract:

American and European analyses on the issue of missile defence tend to diverge considerably. Europeans are sceptical as to the credibility of the threat that the “rogue” states would impose on the present deterrence model. They are not convinced that antimissile weapons would add anything to deterrence, since they would bestow on their holders an increased strategic mobility. They are not convinced that American missile defence should be a ‘decoupling’ factor, which would then no longer be a central element of their relations with the United States. Europeans are asking questions as to the opportunity cost of this type of defence, particularly with regard to relations with Russia, the impact on Chinese strategy, and the military decisions and budgets concerned. Areas of common interest do exist in the areas of terminal phase systems and early warning satellites. It is to be hoped that, in each of these subjects, Europe should have the will to make its interests known in the discussions underway with its transatlantically.

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