Upcoming Events

28-11-2014
Towards COP21: The South Korean Perspective
CDC Climat, 47 rue de la Victoire 75009 Paris (Salle Jamming)

28-11-2014
Indonesia's New Government and the Country's Role in East Asia
Ifri, Paris

Powered by Dailymotion

Proliferation Papers

On the Strategic Value of Ballistic Missile Defense

Brad ROBERTS

Proliferation Papers, No. 50, June 2014

The strategic value of missile defense remains in considerable debate in Europe but less so in the United States. The rising American consensus in support of BMD follows from its perceptions of a changed and changing security environment since the...

Read

Between Allies and Rivals: Turkey, Nuclear Weapons, and BMD

Mustafa KIBAROGLU

Proliferation Papers, No. 49, 2014

This paper discusses Turkey’s attitudes vis-à-vis nuclear weapons and Ballistic Missile Defense in the light of recent developments in the Iranian nuclear program and NATO’s evolving concept of extended deterrence. On the one...

Read


Poland and Ballistic Missile Defense: The Limits of Atlanticism

Łukasz KULESA

Proliferation Papers, no. 48, January 2014

Since Poland first expressed its willingness to host a critical part of the US Ballistic Missile Defense architecture, in 2002, the program has undergone several setbacks. Today, while Poland is still expected to host key elements of the US BMD...

Read

China's Nuclear Idiosyncrasies and Their Challenges

Jeffrey LEWIS

Proliferation Papers, No. 47, November-December 2013

In many respects, the People’s Republic of China’s nuclear arsenal and posture appear unusual to Western eyes. From its “No First Use” policy to its nuclear warhead storage system, Beijing appears to think about nuclear...

Read


The Primacy of Alliance: Deterrence and European Security

Lawrence FREEDMAN

Proliferation Papers, No. 46, March-April 2013

Since the end of the Cold War, the international security environment has been transformed and nuclear weapons have been marginalized in the West. However, the NATO security policies remain almost unchanged: deterrence is still considered as a...

Read

Command and Control in a Nuclear-Armed Iran

Shahram CHUBIN

Proliferation Papers no. 45, January-February 2013

In the long standoff regarding its nuclear ambition, Iran has cultivated ambiguity and been loath to reliably assure the international community of its ultimate intentions, complicating Western efforts to understand, let alone constrain,...

Read


Ballistic Missile Defense in Japan: Deterrence and Military Transformation

Sugio TAKAHASHI

Asie.Visions No. 59/Proliferation Papers No. 44, December 2012

In December 2003, Japan decided to be the second country in the Asia-Pacific to deploy a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system. Started in the 1980s as a defense industry cooperation initiative, BMD efforts have been highly prioritized since the...

Read

Deterring the Weak: Problems and Prospects

James J. WIRTZ

Proliferation Papers no. 43, Fall 2012

Strong states often fail to deter vastly weaker competitors. This paper explores some reasons of this failure and identifies factors that can increase the prospects that deterrence will succeed in these situations. It argues that deterrence fails...

Read


Proliferation and Nonproliferation in the Early Twenty-First Century : The Permanent Five Hold the Key to Success

David SANTORO

Proliferation Papers no. 42, Spring 2012

Since the early twenty-first century, the international nonproliferation landscape has experienced a shift from relatively steady proliferation schemes to more complex and diverse challenges. New entities are gaining access to nuclear material and...

Read

Cruise Missiles and NATO Missile Defense: Under the Radar?

Dennis M. GORMLEY

Proliferation Papers, No. 41, Spring 2012

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the threat of cruise missile proliferation is as equally challenging to NATO as the threat of ballistic missiles. Over the last two decades, the emergence of cruise missiles and UAVs as a threat has...

Read


Dancing with the Bear: Managing Escalation in a Conflict with Russia

Forrest E. MORGAN

Proliferation Papers, No. 40, Winter 2012

"Escalation", the tendency of belligerents to increase the force or breadth of their attacks to gain advantage or avoid defeat, is not a new phenomenon. Systematic thought about how to manage it, however, did not crystallize until the Cold War and...

Read

In Defense of Deterrence: the Relevance, Morality and Cost-Effectiveness of Nuclear Weapons

Bruno TERTRAIS

Proliferation Papers, no.39, Fall 2011

Since 1945, nuclear deterrence has frequently been the target of continuous criticism on strategic, legal and moral grounds. In the past five years, however, the renewed debate on nuclear disarmament has been accompanied by an increase in such...

Read


Intelligence and Nuclear Proliferation: Lessons Learned

Keith A. HANSEN

Proliferation Papers, no. 38, Summer 2011

Intelligence agencies play a fundamental role in the prevention of nuclear proliferation, as they help to understand other countries' intentions and assess their technical capabilities and the nature of their nuclear activities. The challenges in...

Read

Russia's Nuclear Forces: Between Disarmament and Modernization

Pavel PODVIG

Proliferation Papers, no. 37, Spring 2011

Nuclear weapons have traditionally occupied an important place in Russia’s national security strategy. As Russia and the United States have been reducing their nuclear arsenals since the end of the Cold War, their relationship has undergone a...

Read


Strategic Stability in the Cold War: Lessons for Continuing Challenges

David S. YOST

Proliferation Paper, no.36, Winter 2011

During the Cold War, the phrase “strategic stability” gained currency both as a foreign policy objective and as an apt way of describing the fact that the United States and the Soviet Union never actually went to war. To what extent...

Read

Potential Strategic Consequences of the Nuclear Energy Revival

Charles D. FERGUSON

Proliferation Papers, no. 35, Summer 2010

Renewed interest throughout the globe in harnessing nuclear energy has raised concern about security threats from states and non-state actors while holding out the promise of more electricity for more people. The focus of this paper is on assessing...

Read


Chinese Perceptions of the Utility of Nuclear Weapons. Prospects and Potential Problems in Disarmament

Jing-dong YUAN

Proliferation Papers, no. 34, Spring 2010

This paper takes a careful look at China's perceptions of the role of nuclear weapons in its national security policy and defense posture. This is important because China is perceived to be the only country among the five original nuclear-weapon...

Read

North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Development: Implications for Future Policy

Jonathan D. POLLACK

Proliferation Papers, no. 33, Spring 2010

Despite the resumption of high-level diplomatic contact between Washington and Pyongyang in late 2009, realization of a non-nuclear Korean Peninsula remains a very remote prospect, with the DPRK insisting that a peace agreement between the U.S....

Read


Russia, China and the United States: From Strategic Triangularism to the Postmodern Triangle

Bobo LO

Proliferation Papers, n° 32, Winter 2010 / Russie.Nei.Visions, No.47, February 2010

Over the past decade, there has been much talk about a new world order, in which American "unipolarity" would be superseded by more equal arrangements between the great powers. One such idea is a return to the Russia-China-US triangle. In truth,...

Read

In Search of the Nuclear Taboo: Past, Present, and Future

William C. POTTER

Proliferation Papers, n° 31, Winter 2010

One of the most puzzling - if positive - phenomena of the past half century is the non-use of nuclear weapons. This essay seeks to probe the underpinnings of nuclear weapons restraint, the strength and durability of the so-called nuclear "taboo" -...

Read


Numerology in the Second Nuclear Age

Michael KREPON

Proliferation Papers, n° 30, Fall 2009

The nuclear numbers game has changed. During the Cold War, deterrence strategists claimed that the nuclear balance mattered, even at extraordinarily high numbers. By this musty logic, the United States now has more deterrence leverage against Russia...

Read

The Path to Deep Nuclear Reductions. Dealing with American Conventional Superiority

Dennis M. GORMLEY

Proliferation Papers, n° 29, Fall 2009

Dennis Gormley analyzes the recent developments in U.S. conventional capabilities that have become key to counter-proliferation policy at a time when nuclear arsenal reductions regain increasing attention. The author gauges the evolution and...

Read


Dangerous Weapons in Dangerous Hands. Responding to the Challenges of Chemical and Biological Terrorism

Michael MOODIE

Proliferation Papers, n° 28, Summer 2009

Like much of the international security environment, the challenge of Chemical and Biological Terrorism has become more complex and uncertain in the last decade. Many issues related to CBW terrorism continue to be hotly debated, and new ones have...

Read

The World After: Proliferation, Deterrence and Disarmament if the Nuclear Taboo is Broken

Mark FITZPATRICK

Proliferation Papers, n° 27, Spring 2009

The nuclear taboo is customarily seen as a black and white norm, separating the world of the familiar from that of an unknowable afterlife. Though consequences of a breaking of the nuclear taboo use are certainly unpredictable, one can imagine at...

Read


Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East

James A. RUSSELL

Proliferation Papers, n° 26, Spring 2009

Unstable dynamics surrounding Iran's nuclear program may be pushing the world closer to the use of nuclear weapons than is generally realized – perhaps closer than any time since the Cuban missile crisis. This paper proposes a number of near-...

Read

The Evolution of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis: Implications for Iran

Chung-Min LEE

Proliferation Papers, n° 25, Winter 2009

Although North Korea maintained nuclear ambiguity for two decades, it finally gave up the pretense of having a "virtual nuclear weapons program" in October 2006 whereas Iran continues on the path of nuclear brinkmanship. Whether Iran is going to...

Read


Heading for the Fourth Nuclear Age

Ariel LEVITE

Proliferation Papers, n° 24, Winter 2009

Read

President-elect Obama and Nuclear Disarmament. Between Elimination and Restraint

William WALKER

Proliferation Papers, n° 23, Winter 2009

Read


Principles for Reforming the Nuclear Order

George PERKOVICH

Proliferation Papers, n° 22, Fall 2008

Read

Iran's 'Risk-Taking' in Perspective

Shahram CHUBIN

Proliferation Papers, n° 21, Winter 2008

Read


New Wine in Old Bottles? The New Salience of Nuclear Weapons

Yury FEDOROV

Proliferation Papers, n°20, Fall 2007

Yury Fédorov's analysis looks for the meaning of nuclear strategy in the international security context after the end of the Cold War. Will nuclear weapons really lose their importance - as some scholars suggest - or will they rather get new...

Read

Deterrence Today. Roles, Challenges and Responses

Lewis A. DUNN

Proliferation Papers, n°19, Summer 2007

Read


China's Space Ambitions

Joan JOHNSON-FREESE

Proliferation Papers, n°18, Summer 2007

Read

The 13 February Action Plan and the Prospects for the North-Korean Nuclear Issue

Narushige MICHISHITA

Proliferation Papers, n°17, Spring 2007

On 13 February, the Fifth Round of the Six-Party Talks ended with the adoption of an 'Action Plan' for the North Korean nuclear issue. The Action Plan represents the lowest common denominator for the parties involved. In agreeing to it, all parties...

Read


Five Scenarios for the Iranian Crisis

George PERKOVICH

Proliferation Papers, n°16, Winter 2006

Read

Assertive Pragmatism: China's Economic Rise and its Impact on Chinese Foreign Policy

Minxin PEI

Proliferation Papers, n°15, Fall 2006

Read


Toward Transatlantic Cooperation in Meeting the Iranian Nuclear Challenge

George PERKOVICH

Proliferation Papers, n°14, Winter 2005

Read

Russia's Nuclear Policy in the 21st Century Environment

Dmitri TRENIN

Proliferation Papers, n° 13, Autumn 2005

Read


Russia's Strategic Forces: Policy, Evolution and Prospects

Yuri E. FEDOROV

Proliferation Papers, n°12, Summer 2005

Read

Trends in U.S. Nuclear Policy

William C. POTTER

Proliferation Papers, n°11, Spring 2005

Read


A New Generation of Biological Weapons?

Patrick Berche, Politique étrangère, 1/2005, (Spring).

Buy the article on CAIRN websiteAbstractThe use of pathogens as biological weapons was considered since their early discovery. Attacks using 'natural' virulent germs, such as the bacillus of plague or anthrax, were perpetrated during the 20th...

Read

China and Ballistic Missile Defense: 1995 to 2002 and Beyond

Brad ROBERTS

Proliferation Papers, n°10, Winter 2004

Read


Evolution of Nuclear Strategy in US and Russia and its Implications for Arms Control

Nikolai SOKOV

Proliferation Papers, n°9, Spring 2003

Read

North Korea's Conundrum

Gary SAMORE

Proliferation Papers, n°8, Winter 2002

Read


Bioterrorism: How to Evaluate the Threat and to Mitigate the Risks

Jonathan B. TUCKER

Proliferation Papers, n°7, Spring 2002

Read

Addressing the Cruise Missile Threat: Defense and Diplomatic Responses

Dennis M. GORMLEY

Proliferation Papers, n°6, Spring 2002

Read


The India-Pakistan-China Strategic Triangle in the New International Environment

Brahma CHELLANEY

Proliferation Papers, n°5, Winter 2002

Read

The Future of Deterrent Capability for Medium-Sized Western Powers in the New Environment

Sir Michael QUINLAN

Proliferation Papers, n°4, Autumn 2001

Read


Russian-American Relations and the Future of Arms Control

Dmitri TRENIN

Proliferation Papers, n°2, Spring 2001

Read

US-Russian Relations: The Arms Control Agenda

William C. POTTER

Proliferation Papers, n°3, Spring 2001

Read


Beyond the Cold War Nuclear Legacy: Offense-Defense and the Role of Nuclear Deterrence

Lewis A. DUNN

Proliferation Papers, n°1, Winter 2001

Read

Page top

 

Subscribe to our
newsletter


My portfolio

Welcome

Already registered?
Log in

:
Forgotten password?