Abstract

Modern Europe was built on public debt, and the 20th century saw such debt expand, mainly due to war. Since the early 1980s, however, debt has been used to cover civil spending. The functioning and consequences of such sovereign debt have been the subject of impassioned debate since the 18th century. While debts have historically been an instrument for State construction, today they may also be a great danger.

Jean-Yves Grenier is research director at EHESS (École des hautes études en sciences sociales, Paris) and professor at École polytechnique.

Abstract

Four successive crises have shaken the euro following the discovery of the scale of Greek deficits. From agreements to summits, Europe’s leaders are trying to save the euro area. Yet the future of the euro and hence Europe can only be sketched out by taking into account: financial excesses, political incompetence, institutional failures, lags between political and economic time horizons, as well as competing pressures from markets and public opinion.

Élie Cohen, economist, is a research director at CNRS (Centre national de la recherche scientifique). Among his recent publications: Penser la crise (Paris, Fayard, 2010).

Abstract

The European financial crisis has transformed into a public finance crisis which rules out any recovery in the euro area. The multiple measures taken so far have shown themselves to be ineffective. It will surely turn out to be necessary to Europeanize public debts. At the same time, it is necessary to take short term measures to stimulate growth. And to reduce overall debt in the euro area, though that is only possible in the long term.

Stefan Ederer, PhD in economics at Vienna University, is a research fellow at WIFO (Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Vienna).

Abstract

Sovereign credit rating developed progressively as of the early 20th century. More and more countries issue bonds and hence underpin the logic of ratings. Investors are the first users. Credit rating criteria are varied, and the quality of the major rating agencies is today much criticized: the “Western” prism of their analyzes prevented them from anticipating payment problems among the industrialized countries.

Norbert Gaillard, PhD in economics, is an independant consultant; he has published A Century of Sovereign Ratings (New York, Springer, 2011).

Abstract

The events of 2011 were specific to the experience and history of each country, yet shook the sociopolitical, ideological and cultural situation of all North Africa. Islamists will have to confront exercizing power and dealing with huge problems. North Africa surely does not recognize itself in Western, and especially European types of democracy. And new actors and models are emerging in the region, all the way from Turkey’s experience to Qatari activism.

Mansouria Mokhefi is coordinator of Ifri's Middle East and North Africa Program. 

Abstract

In Egypt, the army has used all its powers to avoid the emergence of forces likely to challenge its pre-eminence. The debates of recent months have concerned the timing of elections and the powers of the future Assembly. The greatest surprise came from the legislative success of the Salafists. As for the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been in power since the elections and which has compromised with the army, it will have to deal with the many domestic and external challenges of the country.

Bernard Rougier is director of the Centre d’études et de documentation économiques, juridiques et sociales (CEDEJ, Cairo). Among his publications: L’Oumma en fragments. Contrôler le sunnisme au Liban (Paris, PUF, 2011).

Abstract

In Egypt, digital activism has developed since the mid-2000s, with many bloggers contributing to the denunciation of the abuses by the Mubarak regime. This phenomenon did not emerge in Tunisia, given the censorship of Internet. However, in the two cases blogs, along with the Facebook social network played an important role in the 2011 revolutions.

Translated into French by Elsa Ryder.

David M. Faris is assistant professor for political science at Roosevelt University. His book Dissent and Revolution in a Digital Age: Social Media, Blogging and Activism in Egypt (London, I.B.Tauris) is to be released in september 2012.

Abstract

In Egypt, digital activism has developed since the mid-2000s, with many bloggers contributing to the denunciation of the abuses by the Mubarak regime. This phenomenon did not emerge in Tunisia, given the censorship of Internet. However, in the two cases blogs, along with the Facebook social network played an important role in the 2011 revolutions.

Translated into French by Elsa Ryder.

David M. Faris is assistant professor for political science at Roosevelt University. His book Dissent and Revolution in a Digital Age: Social Media, Blogging and Activism in Egypt (London, I.B.Tauris) is to be released in september 2012.

Abstract

Sharing the same distrust for the democratic eruptions but with specific interests and opposing relations to Washington, the judgements of Tehran and Riyad over the Arab revolutions diverge strongly. The result is a real “cold war” between the two capitals, with all the possible consequences imaginable for the region, especially concerning Iraq and Syria. These two conservative approaches are being challenged internally and via regional diplomacy.

Mohammad-Reza Djalili is honorary professor at the Graduate Institute in Geneva and the author of  L’Iran de A à Z (Brussels, André Versaille, 2010).

Clément Therme is a research fellow at the Graduate Institute in Geneva and an associate member of the Centre d’analyse et d’intervention sociologiques (CADIS) at the École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS, Paris).

Abstract

Israel is a country with no shortage of Arab experts. Yet the 2011 revolutions were unexpected. While the population of the Jewish State welcomes the fall of tyrants who were, to varying degrees, anti-Israeli, Israel is nevertheless concerned about the instability stemming from these popular uprising, and by the advances of Islamist forces. This situation favours Benjamin Netanyhou, in as much as the Israeli population does not want to change helmsmen in the midst of a storm.

Ilan Greilsammer is a professor of political science at Bar-Ilan University (Israel).

Abstract

The uprisings in the Arab world in 2011 were not expected by Western countries, which now have to analyze the upheavals that have taken place, to understand their causes and consequences. In seeking to identify possible outlooks, especially concerning likely trends in Islamic movements, Western countries can adopt new forms of diplomacy, which would allow them to re-establish links with the Arab world fully.

Frédéric Charillon is a professor of political science and director of the ’Institut de recherche stratégique de l’École militaire (IRSEM).

Abstract

The Visegrad Group (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia) has, in 20 years, left its mark on the geopolitical map of Central Europe. Can this group become a serious sub-regional player in the European Union? Though locally it proves undeniably effective, it seems to only have a reactive efficiency in Brussels. Its ability to intervene in the European Neighbourhood Policy or the Union’s energy policy will be a test of its weight in the future.

Jana Vargovčíková is a PhD student at the Institute for Political Science of Charles University in Praha and at the Institute for Social Science in Politics (ISP-CNRS) of Paris 10 University. She is also academic assistant at the College of Europe, Natolin campus.

Abstract

The United States withdrew from a profoundly divided Iraq in December 2011, the setting of daily violence and a deep social and political crisis. One factor that has weighed most on the present situation has been the marginalization of Sunnites throughout the US occupation. Indeed, the Sunnite problem undermines prospects for a durable reconciliation and above all raises the threat of a partition, both geographic and symbolic, of the country.

Myriam Benraad is PhD from the Institute for Political Science in Paris and a specialist of Irak at the Centre d’études et de recherches internationales (Sciences Po-CERI). She has published L’Irak (Paris, Le Cavalier Bleu, 2010).

Abstract

The EU’s energy and climate package recommends the expansion of renewable energy sources in overall energy consumption: energy from windpower or photovoltaic panels. Yet, the results of renewable energy have been mixed, in terms of costs, employment and transport. Raising their market share is also complicated. National decisions aggravate this problem still more, in particular Germany’s decision to scrap nuclear energy.

Maïté Jauréguy-Naudin is director of Ifri's Energy Center.