Abstract

The European crisis is primarily the result of economic difficulties and their social effects. The public now views the European project of increased and shared prosperity with distrust. Moreover, the current governance is highly unclear following a decade of enlargement. A European collective spirit can be reborn, but this revitalization will depend heavily on media and political elites, as well as new generations of European citizens.

Alain RICHARD is a French senator and is a memeber of the presidency of the European Socialist Party. He is a former Defense minister of the Lionel Jospin government (1997-2002).

Abstract

The European crisis is primarily a crisis of governance: the enlarged EU has no effective or legitimate institutional structure. It also raises the question of European identity, one that seems to present itself less and less often in national discussions. In addition, the crisis seriously affects the European morale: the European project as a whole seems worn out. This project will not bounce back until it redefines its notions of politicization, subsidiarity, solidarity, and differentiation.

Maxime LEFEBVRE  is the director of the international relations department at the École nationale d’administration (ENA) and teaches international relations at Sciences Po Paris. His recent book publications include La Politique étrangère européenne (Paris, PUF, 2011, « Que sais-je ? »).

Abstract

Who is responsible for the sovereign debt crisis? The same people who conceived of the Eurozone. But also the governments and the European Central Bank who did not see the dangers of lower interest rate alignment. Also responsible are the bank regulators who allowed sovereign debt to be tied to banking risks and the investors who acquired the debts of bordering countries at the same price as those of Germany. Only a proposition that will address all of these mechanisms will allow for a response to the challenges of the crisis.

Patrick ARTUS is the head of research and studies at NATIXIS. He is a professor of economy at Paris 1 University and is a member of the Conseil d’analyse économique (CAE) under the Prime Minister and is also a member of the Conseil d’analyse de la société (CAS).

Abstract

Faced with the Greek debt crisis, the Monetary Union has taken decisive steps: agreement to a collective settlement, establishment of a sustainable financial plan, involvement of the private sector in the handling of debt, and the tightening of political solidarity around a common currency. What remains is to go beyond these advances with new institutional breakthroughs towards federalism. The debate has begun in Germany; we must now be prepared in France.

Jacques MISTRAL is the head of economic studies at Ifri. He is a member of the Conseil d’analyse économique (under the Prime minister), of the Cercle des économistes and he has recently been reelected president of the Société d’économie politique.

Abstract

The Schengen Agreement is often seen as a symbolic success of European expansion, and the crisis of 2011, after the arrival in Italy of Tunisian migrants, as calling it into question. Originally designed to ease circulation in a large single market, Schengen was especially important for strengthening the external borders of the Union from a security and intergovernmental standpoint. Despite sometimes bitter exchanges, the crisis of 2011 has not changed this fact.

Virginie GUIRAUDON is a CNRS research supervisor at the Center for European Studies at Sciences Po Paris.

Abstract

European citizens’ skepticism with respect to the European Central Bank, the Council, the Commission, and even the Parliament is increasing. Plans for rescuing the most fragile countries in the Eurozone are often perceived negatively and confidence in the euro has begun to erode. Even on the level of political parties, though the foundations of the European project have not been undermined, many more critics have expressed concern regarding the European Union’s governance.

Cécile LECONTE is the head of the MA proram in European Affairs at the Institut d’études politiques in Lille. Among her recent publications are L’Europe face au défi populiste (Paris, PUF, 2005) and Understanding Euroscepticism (Basingstoke, Palgrave Macmillan, 2010).

Abstract

Decolonization has led us to the contemporary phase of democratization. The 1970s and 1980s in Latin America, and the events of the late 1980s in Central and Eastern Europe have gradually expanded the reach of multiparty regimes. The 1990s introduced the concept of reconciliation, which supports democratization through the acceptance of a common past. The question as to whether or not the Arab revolutions will lead to a further expansion of democratic space remains open.

Guy HERMET is a political analyst and is a former director of the Centre d’études et de recherches internationales (CERI). He has published several books on the formation of democratic governments, on populism and on nationalism. His recent works include L’Hiver de la démocratie ou le nouveau régime (Paris, Armand Colin, 2007) and Exporter la démocratie ? (Paris, Presses de Sciences Po, 2008).

Abstract

For the past 20 years, the number ofWestern military interventions that have aimed to protect populations, defend fundamental liberties, or reestablish democracy have multiplied. Though they may be facilitated and legitimated by a rereading of international law, their ideological roots are deep and extend at least to the period of the conquistadores. The imposition of democracy by force, however, still risks failure, as can be seen in the example of Afghanistan.

Dario BATTISTELLA is a professor of political science at Sciences Po Bordeaux and has recently published, among other works, Un monde unidimensionnel (Paris, Presses de Sciences Po, 2011).

Abstract

The Arab revolutions are part of a long-term gradual transformation that has seen post-colonial paternalistic states become predatory states. In the best cases, the survival strategies of authoritarian regimes have implemented a facade of liberalization and relied on the legitimacy granted them by a Western obsession with the destabilization of the region. But the passage of the revolutionary upsurge towards a democratic future may be long.

Bichara KHADER teaches at the Louvain Catholic University and is the director of its Centre d’études et de recherches sur le monde arabe contemporain (CERMAC). He is a former member of the Groupe des hauts experts sur la Politique étrangère et de sécurité commune (PESC) and is a member of the Groupe des sages pour le Dialogue culturel en Méditerranée.

Abstract

Since 2000, elections have been organized in almost every African country. The existence of formal electoral processes has not, however, prevented certain family dynasties from continuing. In addition, many elections are plagued with violence, and post-electoral crises can sometimes only be resolved by unsatisfactory powersharing agreements. However, a number of positive developments in countries like South Africa seem to indicate that electoral democracy is in the process of being institutionalized in Africa.

Vincent DARRACQ is a post-doctoral student in the Transatlantic Post-Doc Fellowship for International Relations and Security (TAPIR) program. He holds a PhD in political science from the Centre d’étude d’Afrique noire (CEAN) at Sciences Po Bordeaux.

Victor MAGNANI is currently a research assistant at the Subsaharian Africa program at Ifri. His research focuses on the dynamics of the elections in the context of the democratization process.

Abstract

The intellectual elites of the country agree on a democratic political horizon for China. Despite this fact however, current reforms seem not to fit into this overall plan. Furthermore, the elites are divided on the institutional nature of a future democracy and the speed with which it should be approached. This democracy cannot be reduced to an institutional advent of multiparty elections, as evidenced by the many current local democracy experiments.

Émilie FRENKIEL is a former student of the École normale supérieure (ENS) and is currently a PhD student in political science at the École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS). Her research focuses on the Chinese academic debate about the political reform.

Abstract

The accident in Fukushima has led the IAEA, the guarantor of the international framework for nuclear safety, to test its emergency procedures and identify the instruments at its disposal. The Action Plan on Nuclear Safety of September 22nd, 2011 establishes the elements necessary for tighter controls based on the notion of transparent peer review. This Action Plan is an important step, as it is applicable without necessarily waiting for legal changes in the security agreements.

Denis FLORY is the assistant director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and is the head of its Safety and Nuclear Security department.

Abstract

The Syrian Islamic movement does not constitute a homogeneous block. The Muslim Brotherhood played no role in the field during the uprising of 2011 but were very active as exiled opponents. Their authority is challenged by new Muslim players such as the Independent Islamic Democratic Current. As for the Ulamas, some can be found supporting the regime whereas others are fighting at great risk alongside the protesters.

Thomas PIERRET is an assistant professor at the Edinburgh university and teaches contemporary islam. His recent publications include Baas et islam en Syrie. La dynastie Assad face aux oulémas (Paris, PUF, 2011).

Abstract

The announcement of the allied forces’ future withdrawal from Afghanistan leads us to consider a new stabilization system. Afghan forces alone cannot ensure the security of the country: they must continue to receive logistical support for intelligence and training. The transition policy requires institutional changes towards, for instance, decentralization, and an agreement between the present parties included, if possible, in a regional negotiation process.

Jean de PONTON d’AMECOURT is the former ambassador of France in Afghanistan (2008-2011). Trained as a diplomat, he is the former director of Strategic Affairs (DAS) and a diplomatic counsellor within the ministry of Defense.