Abstract

Al-Qaeda’s failure was inevitable given the lack of realism of its objectives. It was accelerated by the “war on terror” launched by the Bush Administration, the international cooperation led by Washington and the destruction of Al-Qaeda’s “headquarters” in Afghanistan. However, the failure in Iraq and the stalemate of the intervention in Afghanistan show another side of this war, with its financial, political and moral costs that no doubt follow from having overestimated the threat.

Gilles ANDREANI is an associate Professor at the University Paris 2 Panthéon-Assas and former director of the Centre d'analyse et de prévision (CAP) of the ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Abstract

Revolutions in the Arab world are a defeat for Al-Qaeda, which has already been weakened by ten years of war against terrorism. But while Al-Qaeda may be in a state of crisis, it is far from having surrendered, and has demonstrated remarkable resilience, linked to its decentralization strategy in Iraq, North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and even in Europe, where a "leaderless jihad" seems to have emerged.

Guido STEINBERG, former adviser to the German federal chancellery on questions of terrorism, is a researcher at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP, Berlin).

Translated from the English by Anne-Marie Giudicelli.

Abstract

Revolutions in the Arab world are a defeat for Al-Qaeda, which has already been weakened by ten years of war against terrorism. But while Al-Qaeda may be in a state of crisis, it is far from having surrendered, and has demonstrated remarkable resilience, linked to its decentralization strategy in Iraq, North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and even in Europe, where a "leaderless jihad" seems to have emerged.

Guido STEINBERG, former adviser to the German federal chancellery on questions of terrorism, is a researcher at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP, Berlin).

Translated from the English by Anne-Marie Giudicelli.

Abstract

Guerrillas and partisan wars were first waged against colonial powers, before becoming revolutionary wars during the second half of the 20th century. Today terrorism involves both public relations and ideology, backed by the rise of radical Islam. It nevertheless remains limited, despite the “global war” launched by the George W. Bush’s Administration. The war of attrition in Afghanistan is more complex.

Gérard CHALIAND lived for several years in the African, Asian and Latin American maquis. He wrote several books on terrorism and guerilla, among which Les Guerres irrégulières. XXe-XXIe siècle (Paris, Gallimard, 2008).

Abstract

The counterinsurgency campaign seeks to create a space for the development of political solutions leading to peace. The means granted to Afghanistan have been weakened by the priority given to Iraq. Pakistani support for Afghan insurgents continues. The weakness of the Afghan government prevents it from distributing and fully exploiting international aid effectively. All these problems largely explain the failure in creating circumstances conducive to ending the war.

Andrew M. EXUM, former officer in the American army who was deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq, is a researcher at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). He is the founder of Abu Muqawama, one of the main defence blogs in the United States.

Translated from the English (United States) by lsa Paroissien-Ryder.

Abstract

For a long time, Western armies were organized to fight total war. Since the end of the Cold War, they have been reduced, but have been engaged in conflicts requiring large deployments. European societies no longer know what type of war they have to conduct. Indeed the very concept of limited war and its instruments need to be rethought.

Hew STRACHAN is professor of military history at the Oxford University and is the director of the « Programme on the Changing Character of War ». He is known, among other things, for his works on the First World War.

Translated from the English (Great Britain) by Thomas Richard.

Abstract

Several factors are making it compulsory to rethink the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), including demographic, climate and environmental change. The renewal of the CAP should lead to stable incomes for farmers and prices of agricultural products, as well as to a better accounting of global public goods like climate and biodiversity. “Green” innovation must also be fostered.

Marion GUILLOU is the president of the Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) and of Agreenium. She is also a member of several experts commissions and academies both in France and abroad.

Abstract

Poland has considerably modernized its agriculture through financial support from the European Union, which it joined in 2004. The CAP, which limits are henceforth blatant, must be reformed. The changes put forward by the Commission are not sufficient and some Member States must be more cooperative, setting aside electoral considerations. Everyone has an interest in seeing the CAP be simplified and more productive.

Marek SAWICKI, is a Doctor in sciences and holds a degree in community agricultural law from the Institut des sciences agricoles. He has been the Polish minister of Agriculture and Rural development since 2007. Member of the Polish Parliament since 1993, he has been the vice-president of the executive committee of the Parti paysan polonais (PSL) since 1997.

Translated from the Polish by Krzysztof Soloch.

Abstract

Since the Treaty of Rome set out the objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the dynamics in Europe and changes in the international environment have constantly made these issues more complex. The CAP has without doubt come to the end of a cycle based on price support. A new paradigm needs to emerge rapidly, to be implemented as of 2014. The result of multilateral negotiations could accelerate ambitious CAP reform.

Pierre H. BOULANGER is a researcher at the Groupe d’économie mondiale (GEM) at Sciences Po and is in charge of the Master's degree in European Affairs at Sciences Po Paris.

Abstract

Behind the scenes of the crisis in Ivory Coast, a diplomatic struggle has been taking place between Nigeria, which immediately supported Alassane Ouattara, and South Africa, which was more ambivalent towards Laurent Gbagbo. The positions of Nigeria, which heads the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), finally prevailed and opened the way for the French intervention that led to the arrest of Gbagbo by forces loyal to Ouattara.

Vincent DARRACQ is a postdoctoral fellow in the Transatlantic Post-Doc Fellowship for International Relations and Security (TAPIR) programme. He holds a PhD in political science from the Centre d’étude d'Afrique noire (CEAN) at Sciences Po Bordeaux. His current work deals with south-african foreign policy, China/Africa relations and the crisis in Zimbabwe.

Abstract

The Lisbon Treaty was meant to provide Europe with new capacities in terms of foreign policy and defense. Yet it has not resolved some major issues Europe is facing, including coherence between institutions, questions of military capacity, and above all the lack of unity of purpose stemming from the divergence of national policies. The Union can henceforth only move forward by redefining its limited ambitions, according to its wishes and means.

Anand MENON is a professor of political science at the University of Birmingham. He is the author of, among other things, European Politics (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2007, with Colin Hay) and Europe: The State of the Union (London, Atlantic Books, 2008).

Translated from the English (Great Britain) by Guylaine Vivarat.

Abstract

The revival of the Chinese economy in 2008 has led to a renewed dominance of State capitalism and a shift in focus to domestic consumption. China is outwardlooking and protectionist, and is henceforth a major player in the international financial system. In this context, Europe must obtain clearer reciprocity, but may also benefit from Chinese financial strength.

Denise FLOUZAT-OSMONT D'AMILLY is a professor of economic science at the University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne.

Abstract

Since 2006, the United Nations has deployed a “reinforced” UNIFIL in Lebanon, politically – the maintenance of peace has become “robust” – and militarily. This stronger deployment has allowed the peacekeepers to act effectively. But the status quo is fragile, and the capacity of the international force to act depends on the evolution of the political situation. The latter is crucial, as the military cannot solve political problems.

Benoît MICHEL, head of squadrons, is a researcher at the Laboratoire de recherche sur la défense (LRD) at the Centre des études de sécurité of Ifri. He holds a Master's degree in political science, specializing in international relations and security policies and also holds a Master's degree in international negotiation, specializing in the Arab world. He also holds a degree from the Collège interarmées de défense (CID). As a cavalry officer and a paratrooper, he served in the UNIFIL headquarters in 2009.

Abstract

Germany’s abstention on Resolution 1973 by the UN Security Council derives from the very fundamentals of its foreign policy. Nevertheless, during the Libyan crisis the EU has shown its capacity to adopt common policies on sanctions in the humanitarian field, with German involvement. The development of the EU’s security and defense policy can only be built around low-intensity military missions, and agreement between Paris and Berlin.

Mathias JOPP is the director of the European Policy Institute (Institut für Europäische Politik) in Berlin, professor emeritus at the University of Tübingen and director of studies at the Centre international de formation européenne in Nice.

Daniel GOLER has been a professor of European Studies at the University of Passau since 2008.

Translated from the German by Anne-Céline Cornet.

Abstract

The 2007 crisis, worsened by the housing bubble and the excesses of the Irish banking system, has badly struck Ireland, a country previously known for its economic success. Hence the harsh austerity plans, outside surveillance of the country and the political change at the last legislative elections. Recovery will take a long time and room for maneuver is limited. This also seems to be borne out by renewed emigration, which was thought to be a thing of the past.

Marie-Claire CONSIDERE-CHARON is a professor emeritus at the University of Strasbourg and she also teaches at the French École nationale d’administration (ENA).