The Lisbon Treaty was meant to mark the dawning of a new era for the EU. But as this issue of Politique étrangère demonstrates, the present outcome, which is only in part the result of the Treaty, is far from satisfactory.
The question of Turkey, addressed in the first section of this issue, is emblematic of the EU's inability to make decisions and formulate a clear idea of its identity and its final destiny. The institutions created in the scope of the Lisbon Treaty will certainly not clarify the situation. States are quite suspicious of the institutional adjustments that are taking place. More specific attention will therefore be given to the implementation of the European External Action Service.
One lurking crisis is difficulty of the EU to work out a mode of governance that fits with the problems of the world today. The example of military intervention in Afghanistan, as shown in the second section of this issue, illustrates the murky waters in which multilateral action takes place. The question today is how to achieve a successful transfer of competence to the Afghan State that will enable a military withdrawal without prompting the country's collapse.
Two other reports in this issue further address the theme dedicated to new institutions of governance: one analysing regional security organizations (through the example of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) and the other the "global machinery" of the G20.
The field of nuclear affairs is also looking for new governance, beyond the specific agreements made with Iran or Korea and the weakening of the non-proliferation system.
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TURKEY: INTERNAL ISSUES AND DIPLOMATIC CHALLENGES [afficher]Abstract
The start of negotiations with the European Union was good news for Ankara, an encouraging token of success. However, the slow progression and absence of perspective in negotiations has made the good news start to seem like failure. Public opinion and government policy seem to have fallen in line on the issue, and Turkey rethink its desire for a rapprochement with the EU. This turn comes in the midst of a fast-paced redefinition of the field of influence of a dynamic diplomacy and a regional boom.
Dorothée SCHMID, graduate of Sciences Po Paris and PhD in political sciences (université Paris-II), is Head of the «Contemporary Turkey» Programme at IFRI. Beyond Turkey, she is an expert in foreign policies of the EU and the regional issues of the Mediterranean area.
Buy the article on CAIRN website [masquer] What future is there for the Turkey-Israel couple? - Pierre RAZOUX [afficher]Abstract
At the end of the Cold War, Turkey and Israel established a strategic partnership. However the arrival into power of Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and of a somewhat uncompromising government in Israel, combined with the new geopolitical set-up in the Middle-East, have emptied this partnership of its substance. As things stand, it is now more of a constraint than an asset in terms of Turkey’s new foreign policy. Nevertheless, it is in both countries’ interest to maintain the partnership, even if only for appearance’s sake.
Pierre RAZOUX is a Research Director at NATO's Defense College in Roma, in charge with the Middle-East issues. He has recently published Histoire de la Géorgie. La clé du Caucase (Paris, Perrin, 2009) and Tsahal, nouvelle histoire de l’armée israélienne (Paris, Perrin, 2008).
Buy the article on CAIRN website [masquer] Does the Ergenekon case pose a threat to Turkish democracy? - Nur BOLAT [afficher]Abstract
An investigation into the Ergenekon case was opened in 2007, shedding light on subversive plans aimed at the Turkish State. Above and beyond facts which have yet to be fully established, the case has a wider meaning within a debate which is central to the political scene in Turkey: the link between the real State and the ‘deep State’. The ‘deep State’ is a system of influences and allegiances which runs parallel to the official institutions. The Ergenekon case currently bears witness to the country’s political division, but may eventually lead to an evolution of the country’s institutions.
Nur BOLAT, graduate of Galatasaray University's International Relations Department, and of the Master "Politiques et sociétés en Europe" at Sciences Po Paris, is currently Research Assistant for the "Contemporary Turkey" Programme at IFRI.
Buy the article on CAIRN website [masquer] Ankara ‘opens up' but the Kurdish problem remains unsolved - Hamit BOZARSLAN [afficher]Abstract
In 2009, the paradoxes of the Turkish political scene regarding the Kurdish issue were highlighted, namely pressure from Kemalist military and contradictions within the AKP which can renounce neither its Turk or Kurd electorate. The government’s ‘opening up’ continues, but is unlikely to be conclusive in terms of legislative advances. The resolution of the Kurdish issue is halted by the regime’s internal uncertainties, and is henceforth dependent on the evolution of neighboring countries Iraq, Iran and Syria.
Hamit BOZARSLAN is a Research Director at the École des hautes études en sciences sociales, Paris (EHESS). He has been Codirector at the Institut d’études de l’islam et des sociétés du monde musulman (IISMM) from 2002 to 2008. Among his last publications: Le Conflit kurde. Le brasier oublié du Moyen-Orient (Paris, Autrement, 2009).
Buy the article on CAIRN website [masquer]AFGHANISTAN: MILITARY AND REGIONAL ISSUES Afghanistan/Pakistan: a vicious circle - Gilbert ÉTIENNE [afficher]Abstract
The paper reviews the grave shortcomings of international aid to Afghanistan since 2002, with reference to reconstruction, drugs and the conduct of the new war against the Taliban since 2003-2004. The paper also examines relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan: the growing connections between the Taliban of both countries and Pakistan’s ambiguous attitude towards Afghanistan. There is some hope in Afghanistan, with possible improvements in the conduct of the war and the reconstruction, but the future remains uncertain. As for Pakistan, anti-Taliban movements are growing but the government is weak. The future remains hazy but Pakistan is a country with a number of assets and simply labeling it a failed State is a dramatic over-simplification.
Gilbert ÉTIENNE is a Honorary Professor at the Institut de hautes études internationales (IHEI) in Geneva. He has spent several years in Asia for his research since 1952 and he has published, among other titles, Repenser le développement. Messages d’Asie (Paris, A. Colin, 2009) and Imprévisible Afghanistan (Paris, Presses de Sciences Po, 2002).
Buy the article on CAIRN website [masquer] Counter-insurgency as a solution to conflict in Afghanistan - Pierre CHAREYRON [afficher]Abstract
Counter-insurgency in Afghanistan stems from lessons taught by colonial wars but these need to be adapted, taking into account the specifics of our time. Factors such as the legitimacy and the homogeneity of the insurgency, the weight of public opinion amongst countries of the coalition, as well as the role of technological advance must be taken into consideration. In a wider sense, defining a clear political objective and maintaining coherence in the efforts to stabilize the region must remain the main priority.
Pierre CHAREYRON, battalion major, is a research fellow at the Laboratoire de recherche de la Défense (LRD) from IFRI's Centre des études de sécurité. He is graduate of Saint-Cyr, Marine Troops officer, engeneer, graduate of the Cours supérieur d’état-major and licensed of the Collège interarmées de défense (CID).
Buy the article on CAIRN website [masquer] Afghanistan: caveats halting progress - Rodolphe MODESTE [afficher]Abstract
National caveats, restrictions set by the States which dictate the way in which their forces can be used, are causing a series of difficulties in Afghanistan. The caveats limit the operational flexibility of international forces, imposing restrictions in all areas: for combat operations, including those carried out conjunctly with the Afghan army, as well as in the fight against narcotraffic. However, caveats can by no means be held solely responsible for the current military deadlock.
Rodolphe MODESTE, PhD Candidate in political sciences, is currently working on NATO in a global security view. Before, he has been Associate Researcher at the Centre d’études transatlantiques.
Buy the article on CAIRN website [masquer]SPECIAL REPORTS [afficher]Abstract
According to Menachem Begin’s doctrine, Israel would never allow a neighboring State to own nuclear weapons, all the while denying its existence. But even in Israel, politicians’ and experts’ analyses dispute the veracity of a nuclear threat from Iran. As a result of this, as well as the technical difficulties linked to the development of an anti-Iranian attack force, Benjamin Netanyahu seems set to move the country away from the “Begin doctrine”. Political solutions now seem to be favored, over the original threat of an Israeli retort.
Samy COHEN, Research Director at the Centre d’études et de recherches internationales (CERI)/Sciences Po Paris, is a specialist on foreign policy and defense issues. He as published several books, among which Tsahal à l’épreuve du terrorisme (Paris, Le Seuil, 2009).
Buy the article on CAIRN website [masquer] The creation of the European diplomatic services – what is at stake? - Pierre-Henri d'ARGENSON [afficher]Abstract
The creation of the European External Action Service is central to the implementation of the Treaty of Lisbon. The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and the EU Security Policy will have to find her place within the complex institutional landscape–between the President of the Council, the Council itself, and the Commission. Catherine Ashton seems, for now, to be closer to the Commission: roles must be properly and separately redistributed in order to give the new configuration prescribed by the Lisbon Treaty all its weight.
Pierre-Henri d’ARGENSON is a High-Ranking Civil Servant and a Lecturer in international issues at Sciences Po Paris.
Buy the article on CAIRN website [masquer] The impossible equation of a global governance - Pierre DUQUESNE [afficher]Abstract
The crisis poses with particular urgency the question of the function of a global governing body. The G20 has established itself; but its relation with other governing bodies, and with the ‘Bretton Woods’ institutions, however, remains hazy. Its intended purpose, the weight of each player and the role of regional groups (particularly the European Union) have yet to be clearly defined. The influence of emerging countries must be reinforced but that alone will not suffice to define a new global architecture.
Pierre DUQUESNE is currently ambassador in charge with economical issues of reconstruction and development.
Buy the article on CAIRN website [masquer] The Shanghai Cooperation Organization – negotiation, regional cooperation and power shifts in Central Asia - Boris EISENBAUM [afficher]Abstract
The fall of the USSR restored Central Asia’s strategic importance: poorly structured area between Russia and China, home to a growing Islamic threat, energy sources and American power–since September 11th and the war in Afghanistan. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization was set up to address just these issues. The organization’s future, however, depends on the new balance of regional powers and on the solidity of the rapprochement between Russia and China.
Boris EISENBAUM, Graduate of Sciences Po Paris and Oxford University, is an Expert on Caucasus and Central Asia. He is a Consultant for international organisations (UNO, OECD, UE, European Council) and has published Guerres en Asie centrale: luttes d’influence, pétrole, islamisme et mafias, 1850-2004 (Paris, Grasset, 2005).
Buy the article on CAIRN website [masquer] Economic crisis and instability in West Africa - Yannick PROST [afficher]Abstract
The world crisis has had varied repercussions on States in West Africa. Some States collapsed and have since entered a fragile convalescence; other resource-rich States have relied on regular income derived from the wealth of their territories; but, for the most part, States of West Africa have managed to balance the demands of democratization and good governance. Certainly reforms were not enough to solve issues as the current West Africa social crisis is at once exogenous and due to internal development crises.
Yannick PROST, agrégé d’histoire, former student at the École nationale d’administration (ENA), is a high-ranking civil servant. He teaches international issues at the Centre de préparation of ENA (Sorbonne/Ulm) and history at Sciences Po Paris. He wrote (with Justine Faure) Relations internationales histoire, questions régionales, grands enjeux (Paris, Ellipses, 2008).
Buy the article on CAIRN website [masquer]OPEN FORUM The ‘French choice' within the global nuclear landscape: halfway between caution and opportunity - André DUMOULIN [afficher]Abstract
The end of the Cold War did not bring about the disappearance of nuclear power. As evidence by the great powers’ nuclear programmes and the rate of proliferation, nor will the current debate on eradicating nuclear power. Nonetheless, current debate within NATO could lead to the withdrawal of American nuclear forces from Europe. If this were the case, France’s position would not change drastically but would take on a new dimension in Europe.
André DUMOULIN is Attached to the École royale militaire (Brussels) and to the Political Sciences Department of the Faculté de droit of the Liege University. He belongs to the Réseau multidisciplinaire d’études stratégiques Rmes.be.
Buy the article on CAIRN website [masquer] The Bush years and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict - Antoine COPPOLANI [afficher]Abstract
George Bush’s years in power marked an American disengagement from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In the eyes of the Administration, the idea that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was not a key factor in Middle-Eastern policies was confirmed by 9/11. Subsequently, intervention in Iraq was supported by the slogan “the road to Jerusalem runs through Bagdad”. Rather than propose a solution, the Annapolis conference merely confirmed problems due to damage on the field. Barack Obama has inherited said problems.
Antoine COPPOLANI, professor in contemporary history at Montpellier University, is currently writing a biography of Richard Nixon and a study about the United States and the Israeli-Arab conflict (forthcoming, Paris, Tallandier).
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