RUSSIA, THE SURROUNDINGS AND THE WEST
[afficher]Abstract
Washington/Moscow relationships are based today on the heritage of the last 15 years. They have undervalued the idea of a much-needed strategic partnership. The fact that new administrations are coming to power in Russia and in the United States should help to implement such a partnership in all the following issues: nuclear, economy, energy, regional issues and democratic values.
Thomas GRAHAM is Director of Kissinger Associates.
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[masquer] Russia, the Global Crisis and the European Security - Dmitri MEDVEDEV
[afficher]Abstract
The first World Policy Conference (WPC) organized by the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri) was held in Evian, on October 6, 7 and 8 2008. It aimed at helping to single out the main elements for a new world governance. This first WPC has been closed by the speeches of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and President of the Russian Federation Dmitri Medvedev.
Dmitri MEDVEDEV is the President of the Russian Federation.
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[masquer] Manoeuvres in South Caucasus - Gaïdz MINASSIAN
[afficher]Abstract
Beyond being a bilateral challenge, the conflict between Moscow and Tbilisi has deeply modified the political landscape in South Caucasus. Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are probably now more reliant on Russia. The triangle Moscow/Ankara/Teheran is enhanced, while the American presence is fading off. Russia has undoubtedly improved its own position, but the South Caucasus is not isolated from other convulsions.
Gaïdz MINASSIAN is Fellow at the Groupe d'analyse politique Défense/Relations internationales/Sécurité, University Paris X-Nanterre.
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[masquer] European Union and Russia in global governance - Nicolas SARKOZY
[afficher]Abstract
The first World Policy Conference (WPC) organized by the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri) was held in Evian, on October 6, 7 and 8 2008. It aimed at helping to single out the main elements for a new world governance. This first WPC has been closed by the speeches of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and President of the Russian Federation Dmitri Medvedev.
Nicolas SARKOZY is the President of the French Republic.
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[masquer] Russia/NATO Relationship: Moment of Truth or Déjà-vu? - Julianne SMITH
[afficher]Abstract
Since the collapse of the USSR, NATO/Russia relationship is based on a long lasting misunderstanding. Yelstin, as well as Poutine, tried to establish close links with NATO and secondly, to co-operate in practical terms. The Russians consider that NATO has never taken seriously its demands for a partnership. The Russia/ NATO relationship must be rebuilt from the start. Given the current challenges, it is necessary and even possible.
Julianne SMITH is the Head of the Europe program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
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[masquer]NUCLEAR ENERGY AT THE RISK OF PROLIFERATION
The Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Withdrawal Clause - Grégory BOUTHERIN
[afficher]Abstract
Like any international agreement, the NPT includes a withdrawal clause. North Korean withdrawal, which was announced in 1993 and became effective in 2003, shows howdifficult it is to preserve this possibility,while guaranteeing compliance with signed agreements. To achieve this target, two conditions are required: first, enhancing the means by which the reasons for withdrawals can be made clear and second, to allow the Security Council to draw all the consequences of withdrawals that could imply that a treaty has been violated.
Grégory BOUTHERIN, has a PhD in law, Air force officer (Centre de recherche de l'armée de l'air, CreA/EOAA), member of the Centre d'études et de recherches internationales et communautaires (CERIC/CNRS - Université Paul Cézanne Aix-Marseille-III) et chercheur associé au Centre d'études de sécurité internationale et de maîtrise des armements (CESIM). He is the author of La Lutte contre la prolifération des armes de destruction massive (Paris, La Documentation française, 2007).
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[masquer] The Indo-American Nuclear Treaty: Challenges and Controversies - Raphaël GUTMANN
[afficher]Abstract
In September 2008 India signed a co-operation agreement on civil nuclear energy with the United States. So doing, it got rid of an embargo that lasted for several decades, due to India's refusal to sign the NPT. This agreement has triggeredmany political debates in India and in the United States as well. Though the treaty is part of a new general design of the Indian diplomacy, it is very likely that it does not mean that New Delhi has radically changed its views on Washington.
Raphaël GUTMANN is Junior Research Fellow (India Program, Ifri) and a PhD student.
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[masquer] Iran's Nuclear Programme and its Official Aim of Producing Nuclear Energy - Reza KHAZANEH
[afficher]Abstract
Iran declares to aim at developing nuclear energy andmastering the whole cycle of nuclear combustion. After the withdrawal ofWestern experts, Russia took over the building of nuclear plants, without clearly explaining what it really intended to do. Nowadays Iran has no international assistance, either to complete the nuclear plants, or to achieve full control of the nuclear combustion cycle. Going forward seems difficult, even though Iran has proved capable to mobilize a good deal of energy to attain its target.
Reza KHAZANEH, PhD, is the former Director of the Center of Nuclear Technology (Ishapan).
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[masquer]Repères
[afficher]Abstract
Two reasons explain why the French influence in Brussels is on the decline: first, because French elite do not fully understand how the European institutions work; second, because Brussels' Europe is going through a transformation process which moves it away from the plans and projects made for it in Paris. To recover part of the lost ground, France needs to adapt psychologically, politically and institutionally to this new state of affairs.
Pierre-Henri d'ARGENSON, former student of the École nationale d'administration (ENA), he holds a PhD in European politics (London School of Economics); he is also an officer at l'État-Major des Armées. He teaches international questions at l'Institut de la gestion publique et du développement économique (IGPDE) and at l'Institut d'études politiques (IEP) of Paris.
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[masquer] Fury and Amazement: The Lessons of the War Between Israel and the Hezbollah - Michel GOYA
[afficher]Abstract
The Israeli leaders had declared that global military threat was over, and then focused on military operations aiming only to maintain the public order by means of targeted attacks in the occupied territories. Doing so, they trapped themselves, together with Tsahal, in a powerless strategy in the war triggered in 2006 against Hezbollah. But Israel was neither politically nor morally ready to this confrontation, and even less from a strategic standpoint. This is a lesson that other Western armies should think over…
Michel GOYA is historian. He is the author of La Chair et l'acier, l'armée française et l'invention de la guerre moderne (1914-1918) (Paris, Tallandier, 2004) and L'Irak, les armées du chaos (Paris, Economica, 2008).
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[masquer] Cyberwars: Myth and Reality - Jean-Loup SAMAAN
[afficher]Abstract
Cyberspace may be physically, syntactically and semantically identified. But the cyberwar is more difficult to define, as it seems to adopt rather classical conceptions. Even though a big bang sending us far from the IT age remains a remote possibility, we nonetheless have to work out operational plans making use of cyberspace elements. Co-operation with the private sector is essential to achieve such an aim.
Jean-Loup SAMAAN, former visiting scholar at the RAND Corporation (Washington DC), he has published Les métamorphoses du Hezbollah (Paris: Karthala, 2007).
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[masquer]Libres propos
French-Lebanese Relationships under Jacques Chirac's Presidency - Gérard CLAUDE
[afficher]Abstract
Changes in the Lebanese society, combined to the political evolution in the region, have led Paris, under Jacques Chirac's presidency, to attempt a " come back " to Lebanon. After a decrease of its global political influence, France tries to occupy a position that allows it some efficiency in settling crises and gives priority to its intervention in fields such as culture and economic co-operation.
Gérard CLAUDE is Professor at the Institut d'études politiques of Aix-en-Provence and recently published Géopolitique et relations internationales en Méditerranée (Paris: Ellipses, 2007)
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[masquer] Mongolia's Geostrategy - Philippe FRANCOIS
[afficher]Abstract
Mongolia is a large country, thinly inhabited, endowed with large mineral resources. It has succeeded rather smoothly a democratic transition. Surrounded by two giants, Russia and China, it adopted an original position in diplomatic matters; its strategy represents a model for countries aiming to preserve their sovereignty. As Mongolia is looking for any possible co-operation consistentwith its strategy, there may be a chance for France to enhance its influence in that country.
Lieutenant colonel Philippe FRANCOIS is an officer in the army. He currently serves at the Commandement de la doctrine pour l'emploi des forces (CEDF).
Jean-Marie CAMBACERES, is a reserve colonel at the CDEF, former student at l'École nationale d'administration (ENA), former listener at l'Institut des hautes études de défense nationale (IHEDN), former deputy, protractor for the Budget des Affaires étrangères, specialist of Asia and President of France-Asia.
General Vincent DESPORTES directed the CDEF of the army. He is today the Head of the Collège interarmées de défense and joint manager of the series "Stratégies & Doctrines " Economica editions.
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[masquer] Nicolas Sarkozy's African Policy: Severing or Continuity? - Assane THIAM
[afficher]Abstract
Before and during his presidential campaign, Nicolas Sarkozy wished to improve the French policy in Africa. Nonetheless, quarrels among " ancient " and " moderns " seem to survive, sending mixed signals: dissolving the " African cell ", but going on visiting the countries having traditionally special relationships with France, the Dakar speech, etc. At a very slow pace, the French policy is changing, also helped by evolution on the African side.
Assane THIAM is the pen name of a French senior civil servant, currently working for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Africa.
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