Abstract
The bombing of Samaraâ's Shiite mosque opened a 'mosque war' in 2006, creating a territorialized religious divide. The process of the division of the country into separate communities is exacerbating, as the absolute impotency of the authorities becomes evident and the militia phenomenon strengthens. The explosion of the country, in one form or another, is now an open hypothesis, with terrible consequences on the region's Sunni/Shia balance.

Myriam BENRAAD is graduate from the Institut d'études politiques (IEP) of Paris. Arabist and Specialist of Iraq, she completes a thesis on the identities issue in the post-war period (2003), around a critical examination of the 'Arab sunni phenomenon'.

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Abstract
The election in 2005 of an ultra-conservative, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, as President should be seen in the light of three main elements: the loss of credibility of reformers, the general disinterest of the middle class for politics and the widening of the social gap between the rich and the poor. Through his populist discourse, Ahmadinejad has succeeded in reaching out to the most needy. Inspired by the doctrinal sources of Khomeynism, he does not draw any dividing line between internal policy and external goals. He favors a militant Iran, with a revolutionary message and a foreign policy going beyond the pursuit of national interests.

Mohammad-Reza DJALILI has a PhD of political and diplomatic sciences from the Université libre of Brussels. He is a Professor at the Institut universitaire des hautes études internationales (IUHEI) of Geneva. He also taught at the University of Paris-II and at the University of Teheran. Its work concerns the history of contemporary Iran, the conflicts of the Middle East, the geopolitics of the Central Asia and the Caucasus.

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Abstract
Since the Hariri assassination, the subsequent Syrian withdrawal in 2005 and the summer 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon's political deadlock has transformed into an unprecedented institutional vacuum. In the meantime, both Western and regional interferences in Beirut's political quagmire are fueling tensions. Religious divisions between the Sunnis and the Shia, supporters of two different identities for Lebanon "the pro-Western liberal vision and the anti-Israeli pro-Iranian one" seem to be heading towards uncontrolled violence.

Nadim HASBANI, in charge of the relationships to Arab media at International Crisis Group (ICG), is a Researcher in Institut français de géopolitique (IFG, Université Paris VIII-Vincennes/Saint-Denis) where studies the defense policies of the Gulf. He founded the Middle East Political Risks Company, MidEastRisk.

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Abstract
The Israeli society, since the failure of last summer's war in Lebanon to reach its political goals, has plunged into a deep crisis of confidence. Today, the Israeli environment "Palestine, Lebanon, Iran and the bogging down of the 'American friend's in Iraq" seems more frightening than ever. The Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his government have an image of impotency and, more than that, of corruption. Hence, disorientation is all around. No leader has replaced general Sharon, who gave his people the feeling that he knew how and where to lead them. This 'Sharonostalgia' generates two phenomena: the quest for a new 'providential man', and a growing mentality of 'everyman for himself.'

Sylvain CYPEL has a degree of international relations from the Hebraic university of Jerusalem and manage the 'Focus' pages in the daily Le Monde. Former Chief Editor of the weekly magazine Courrier international, he is the author of Les Emmurés. La société israélienne dans l'impasse (Paris, La Découverte, 2005).

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Abstract
Engaged in a process of economic reform, Egypt is preparing President Mubarak's succession. The President is setting up a system in favor of his son, who is seen as his heir. But the 'young guard' of the National Democratic Party (NDP), led by Gamal Mubarak, does not have the same vision of politics as the older generation. The vote-catching practices "the NDPs essential purpose and the basis of the regime at the time of Welfare State" are confronted with the logic of free market economy. Although a relative cohesion is, for the moment, imposed by Hosni Mubarak, the conflicts are manifest.

Sophie POMMIER, former project Leader to the French Secrétariat général de la défense nationale (SGDN) and to the French ministry of Foreign Affairs (Direction Afrique du Nord-Moyen-Orient, Centre d'analyse et de prévision), is a Specialist in the Middle East. She is the author of many articles, in particular on the Palestinian issue and Egypt. She has published Jerusalem: division with the division? (Paris, Michalon, 1995).

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Abstract
Russia's economy is intertwined in global markets, but is increasingly controlled by a patrimonial authoritarian Russian state that allows elites to use and maintain political power for distributing wealth among patrons and clients. Transimperialism is the Russian leadership's attempt to access the fruits of globalization and yet sustain patrimonial authoritarianism at home. Europe and the United States should not isolate Russia, but neither should they allow the Kremlin to participate in globalized markets without following the rules of free enterprise. The best path to an integrated Russia is a transatlantic strategy of engagement with free market economy that involves Russian society and business and maintains high standards for investment and trade.

Celeste A. WALLANDER is Visiting Associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. She is the author of over 70 publications, and is currently writing Global Russia: Economics, Politics, and Security and The Geopolitics of Energy in Eurasia. She received her Ph.D. from Yale University, and is a Member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

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Abstract
Russia's foreign policy is powered by interests rather than ideals or ideologies. Big money and supreme power are closely intertwined. The Kremlin considers Russia's energy abundance to be its principal comparative advantage in the global competition. Within the former Soviet Union, it seeks preponderance rather than integration; with the European Union, Russia seeks a relationship of equals built on mutual interests; toward the United States, it asserts its independence and is prepared to work on a quid pro quo basis. In the longer term, the quality of the relations will depend on the depth and speed of Russia's modernization efforts. Russia's capitalism, rather than Russian democracy, is the thing to watch.

Dmitri TRENIN is a Senior Associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Director of Studies at its Moscow Center. His recent books include: Integration and Identity: Russia as a New West (Evropa: Moscow, 2006); Russland: die gestrandete Weltmacht (Murmann: Hamburg, 2005) and The End of Eurasia: Russia between Geopolitics and Globalization (Carnegie: Washington, 2002).

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Abstract
The relations between Berlin and Moscow are close, inherited from Ostpolitik history and recent choices made by the Schroeder government. Despite the current majority's division, the German presidency of the European Union will give the opportunity of a compromise on the policy towards Moscow. The different German schools of thought will have to agree, as they will be faced with free-trade zones projects, post-Soviet space management and, more generally, the analysis of the Russian regime's development.

Alexander RAHR, professor emeritus at the Moscow State University of International Relations (MGIMO), is Program Director Körber-Centre Russia/CIS of the German Council on Foreign Relations. He coordinates the institute's EU-Russia Forum, is a Member Steering of Petersburger Dialogue and Board Member of the Yalta European Strategy (YES).

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Abstract
Today, the Russian policy of Paris seems at the end of a cycle. Since 2000, it is characterized by a support for Vladimir Putin, in spite of contradictory interpretations on the nature of its regime. Paris, who has a special relationship with the Kremlin, has been able to enrich its diplomatic options, even if, undoubtedly, it cost a swinging between interests and values whose effects have consequences beyond the bilateral framework. The bilateralism of the 'privileged relation' is reaching its limits. This article thus replaces the French policy according to those of its principal partners by proposing a better articulation between the Franco- Russian relation and the dialogue between EU and Russia.

Thomas GOMART is Head of the Russian/CIS programme at Ifri. He is also teaching at the Military School of Saint-Cyr (Coëtquidan-France).

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Abstract
For the first time, Foreign Policy issues are at the heart of a French presidential campaign. What is at stake, beyond personal dimensions, is the very redefinition of French diplomacy: the relation to the United States, the role of France in Europe, its message to Africa and the Middle East, are among the first tasks to be handled by the next President. Misunderstandings must be cleared up, and clarifications must be coined, when it comes so settle the next diplomatic agenda. New guidelines must be proposed as far as the substance of France's vision is concerned, but also as regards the reshaping of her diplomatic tool. What does France want for the world and for itself? How does it intent to pursue its goals?

Frédéric CHARILLON, Professor in Political Scinces, is a Researcher in the Centre d'études et de recherches de science administrative (CERSA, Paris 2- Pantheon Assas). Author of many works, he has edited the Relations internationales (Paris, La Documentation française, 2006).

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Abstract
Japan is experiencing a new dynamism, consequence of a decade of deep reforms: affirmation of the economic leadership, prevalence of merit among age, increased flexibility, liberalization of numerous sectors (energy, financial activities) or privatization (universities, postal service). The excellence of Japan's economic insertion in the region contrasts with its difficulties to define pacified security and political relations. To avoid genuine 'realpolitik' or 'neo-mercantilist' temptations, Japan has to develop dialogue, measures of confidence and regional institutions. Europeans shall not underestimate Japan's influence or the importance of their interests in North-East Asia.

Bernard de MONTFERRAND, Former French ambassador in Tokyo, and former student of the Ecole nationale d'administration, was also a Lecturer and Director of studies at the l'Institut d'études politiques of Paris.

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Abstract
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has expressed a growing interest for Algeria. The Algerian leaders, with their long experience in fighting terrorism, are ready to offer their services to the Pentagon, even if they refuse the installation of an American base in their country. The two states also develop economic relations: with investments totaling more than 11 billion dollars in 2005 (mainly in the hydrocarbon sector), the United States became Algeria's first economic partner in 2005-2006, France being relegated to second place.

Maxime AIT KAKI has a PhD in Political Science (university of Paris I-Pantheon-Sorbonne) and holds a diploma from the Centre de formation et de perfectionnement des journalistes (CFPJ). He is currently an independent journalist and devoted many works to North Africa and the identity issue. He has published: De la question berbère au dilemme kabyle à l'aube du XXIe siècle (Paris, Harmattan, 2004).

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Abstract
The 21st century may have started with the 1998 Indian and Pakistani nuclear explosions. The Korean and Iranian crises weaken the non-proliferation system. The great nations have witnessed, all during the Cold War, crises that included the nuclear hypothesis. The multiplication of nuclear actors who do not have the same experience is making the system unstable. Will we again have to experience the Cold War stages, with a new Cuban crisis, this time explicitly nuclear?

Thérèse DELPECH, Associated Researcher of the Centre d'études et de recherches internationales (CERI) - Fondation nationale des sciences politiques (FNSP), is also Member of the council of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) of London. She recently published L'Ensauvagement, le retour de la barbarie au XXIe siècle (Paris, Grasset, 2005) and L'Iran, la bombe et la démission des Nations (Paris, Autrement, 2006).

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Abstract
The model of high-tech war is deadlocked. Fifteen years after the first Gulf war, the Western armies are unable to win against militias of several thousand men as in Iraq, Lebanon or Afghanistan. By laying down objectives of total war, like imposing democracy on people, Westerners have created 'total' opponents. These opponents put up their ability to sacrifice as well as their imagination against our armies, which are both limited in the use of their power and becoming less and less efficient, mainly because of the exponential increase of modern armament's costs. Within the framework of limited budgetary resources, the choice of a high-tech war can only lead to dividing the armies between a rich component, whose use is less and less likely, and a more vulnerable poor component.

Michel GOYA, Lieutenant Colonel and writer in the Centre de doctrine d'emploi des forces (French Army), is in charge of the experience feedback of the French and foreign operations in the Asia/Middle East zone. He is the Author of La Chair et l'Acier (Paris, Tallandier, 2004) which sticks to the tactical process of the French Army during the First World War.

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