THE EMERGENCE OF CHINA VIEWED FROM FRANCE
The emergence of China viewed from France - Hubert VÉDRINE
[afficher]Abstract
The post-cold war world cannot be described anymore as an opposition between two blocs, but as a coexistence of powers. In this context, the recent emergence of China forces to think again its relations with the international community. China seems to be at the same time a strong partner and a potential rival, both militarily and economically. The international community therefore wants guarantees, in terms of human rights, economy, or foreign policy. The ambivalent relationship between China and the USA, the lack of European policy in China and the specificity of the French Chinese policy show the necessity of answering this question: how can a realistic and renewed multilateralism, including China, emerge?
Hubert VÉDRINE, is diplomatic counsellor for the French Presidency in 1981. He is then nominated counsellor for Strategic Affairs (1988-1991), then Secretary-General of the Presidency of the Republic (1991-1995). Minister of Foreign Affairs in Lionel Jospin's government (1997-2002), he created, in 2003, Hubert Védrine Conseil.
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[masquer]FROM ASSISTANCE TO SANCTIONS: HOW TO SAVE THE PALESTINIANS
From Assistance to Sanctions: How to Help the Palestinians - Dorothée SCHMID
[afficher]Abstract
Since the signing of the Oslo agreements, the Palestinian territories have received a very important amount of financial assistance provided by the international community of donors. In the Palestinian context, development assistance was initially intended to develop the foundations of a viable Palestinian State. Yet the donor's effort slowly evolved into a permanent system of emergency assistance, including an increasing proportion of humanitarian aid. Following the victory of Hamas in the elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council in early 2006,Western donors have taken in March 2006 a decision to suspend aid to the Palestinian government. This paper aims at examining the background process leading to this decision, and to analyze its possible outcomes on the field.
Dorothée SCHMID is associate researcher, Middle-East/North Africa Center (Ifri). Expert in European policies in the Mediterranean and in the Middle-East, she currently works on Western strategies of democratization.
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[masquer]INTERNET GEOPOLITICALS
The International Governance of Internet - Pierre de LA COSTE
[afficher]Abstract
The World Summit on the Information Society, held in Geneva in 2003 and in Tunis in 2005, has been the greatest summit ever organized by the UN, by the number of members of "civil society". It shows a true awareness on the Internet governance subject. The Athens Forum, which will be held October 30th 2006, will perhaps be the place where tensions and tectonic moves that shake the Internet will express themselves. Between Tunis and Athens, the problem of the political stakes of the Internet comes back to the table. As the Internet has become the nervous system of our societies, it is not surprising that it raises serious questions on power, at a world level, and therefore that it raises geopolitical questions.
Pierre de LA COSTE is the founder of Mélusine Conseil, strategic monitoring consultancy for administrations and local authorities. He is the author of L'Hyper-République, report presented to Henri Plagnol, Secretary of State for the Reform of the State (Paris, Berger-Levrault, 2003).
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[masquer] Sovereignty and Digital Networks - Bernard BENHAMOU and Laurent SORBIER
[afficher]Abstract
The development of the Internet raises numerous political questions, challenging the State sovereignty or the liberty of citizen, as for example with the well-known case of domain names management, currently controlled by the USA. The European Union tries to save three fundamental principles, the Internet interoperability, accessibility and neutrality, key principles of an agreement on the network governance that would respect the democratic principles.
Bernard BENHAMOU, Associate Professor on the Information Society at the Institut d'études politiques (IEP) of Paris,he has been in the French Delegation at the World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS).
Laurent SORBIER has been technical advisor in charge of the Information Society for Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin. He is an Associate Professor at the Institut d'études politiques (IEP) of Paris and teaches at Paris I and Paris VIII Universities.
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[masquer] The Digital Divide: Diagnosis and Reply - Richard FRANCO
[afficher]Abstract
Could the advent of the Information Society hold the promise of a faster progress towards satisfying the essential needs of under-served populations ? Could the reduction of Digital Divide – the gap between those who use information technologies and those who don't –greatly impact development policies? This article offers a snapshot that establishes the challenge on how to promote initiatives bound to offer a universal access to telephone and Internet in a world ruled by markets. These communication tools will contribute to the betterment of mankind if, and only if, they are promoted in the context of integrated multisectorial policies.
Richard FRANCO, Professor, did several missions in Africa and in India as part of development programs. From 2002 to 2005, he directed the implementation of a project promoting Information and Communication Technologies in Central African Republic.
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[masquer]CONFRONTATIONAL AFRICA
Can the West Save Africa? - Marc-Antoine PÉROUSE DE MONTCLOS
[afficher]Abstract
The black continent seems to be today a mission territory for international operations, in which military aspects are now inseparable from political and economical parts. It is however not sure that these operations, trying to influence from outside conflicts that are mainly civil wars, have positive consequences. Their contrasted results forces us to interrogate the capacity of the West to resolve African conflicts
Marc-Antoine PÉROUSE DE MONTCLOS is research officer at the Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD). He studies armed conflicts, forced dislocation and the evaluation of the humanitarian aid in Sub-Saharan Africa. A graduate from the Institut d'études politiques (IEP) of Paris, where he teaches, he lived several years in Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya.
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[masquer] The Oligopolies of Violence in West-Africa - Andreas MEHLER
[afficher]Abstract :
The Europe-inspired notion of the State with a monopoly on tax-raising and violence is empirically difficult to find in large parts of Africa. Decision-makers frequently ignore how local groups perceive their security conditions and to whom they turn to for services in this area – including vigilantes and traditional authorities. A wide range of State and non-State actors can provide security, and sometimes their interplay create an "oligopoly of violence". Efficiency and (local) legitimacy have to become important criteria in selecting partners for cooperation. It would be useful to have a complete overview of all violence actors, their motives and performances before far-reaching decisions are taken.
Andreas MEHLER, political scientist, is the Director of the Institute of African Affairs (Hambourg), in the German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA).
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[masquer] DRC: Democracy without Democrats - Thierry VIRCOULON
[afficher]Abstract
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has become a constitutional State in December 2005 and its political transition is now ending. Peace is still fragile in the Eastern part of the country, "State-building" is proving very difficult and good governance is still an elusive concept. Above all, the structural conditions that turned the DRC into a "failed State" did not change. Under these circumstances, the involvement of the international community in terms of security and reconstruction remains necessary. If this article insists upon what can and cannot be achieved during a political transition, it also suggests some guidelines in order to consolidate the new and fragile democracy and stabilize Central Africa and the Great Lakes region.
Thierry VIRCOULON, alumni of the École nationale d'administration (ENA), worked in Africa for the French Minister of Foreign Affairs and for the European Commission on political transition and post-conflict management issues. He is the author of L'Afrique du Sud démocratique ou la réinvention d'une nation (Paris, L'Harmattan, 2005).
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[masquer] Africa and "War on Terror" - Alain ANTIL
[afficher]Abstract :
The threat of Islamic radicalization is present in the Sahelo-Saharan region. But the traffics, the reactivation of rebellions and the fragility of States in general are much more immediate dangers. The discourse on terrorism tries to build a new paradigm, which aims to favor in this Sahelian space new foreign partnerships and the development of new alliances rather than the stability of the region.
Alain ANTIL, PHD in political geography, expert on Sahelian Africa, is an associate researcher (Ifri) and teaches at the Institut d'études politiques (IEP) of Lille and at the University of Rouen.
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[masquer]SPECIAL REPORTS
Tomorrow's Battles: is the Future Predictable? - Vincent DESPORTES
[afficher]Abstract
Classical war is probably dead because it is no longer a profitable tool to achieve political and economical goals. It relinquishes its place to dissymmetric conflicts that very quickly divert themselves into long asymmetric confrontations. Abroad, the stabilization phase has become the decisive phase. The place of war has changed : whereas in the past, it was conducted in three dimensions, in open spaces, in the middle of armies, it is now conducted on the ground, in close quarters, and in the middle of populations. The enemy adapts itself more quickly and armament is practically never used to produce the effect for which it was conceived. Today, more than ever, it is not the ability to plan and to decide that counts but the ability to react and to adapt.
Vincent DESPORTES, brigadier general, is at the head, for the Army, of the Centre de doctrine d'emploi des forces. He is also in charge of " Stratégies et doctrines " (éditions Economica) and has recently published Décider dans l'Incertitude (Paris, Economica, 2004).
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[masquer] The Pacific Use of Nuclear Technology and Nonproliferation - Grégory BOUTHERIN and Daniel KIFFER
[afficher]Abstract
The current crisis, born from the nuclear activities undertaken by Iran, resulted in clarifying the difficulty in reconciling the right to the peaceful use of the nuclear energy with nonproliferation. Whereas Teheran asserts its – legitimate – right to a peaceful use, the international community expresses doubts as for the real purpose of its program, and the IAEA is unable to guarantee its exclusively non-violent character. If Iran respects the letter of the NPT, it does not respect however the spirit of it insofar as it undertook activities not declared before the IAEA and did not respect its own engagements when it stated to voluntarily apply the provisions of the additional protocol to the agency safeguards. One faces, therefore, a problem of interpretation of the provisions of the NPT.
Grégory BOUTHERIN, officer of the French Air Force and lecturer at the Centre de recherche de l'Armée de l'air (CReA), is achieving a PHD in international public law on the nonproliferation of Weapons of mass destruction at the Centre d'études et de recherches internationales et communautaires (CERIC, Aix-Marseille III).
Daniel KIFFER has been analyst on arms control and counter-proliferation issues for the Ministry of Defence from 1988 to 2003.
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[masquer] The Western Strategies and Globalization - Jean DUFOURCQ
[afficher]Abstract
Do we still need security strategies for the globalized 21st Century ? Are national strategies still compatible with this new world ? Are the Westerners able to define a global, effective and common strategy, in order to consolidate their common interest ? It is a real challenge, and the different and recent trials to address this sensitive question are questionable or unsuccessful. The Atlantic Alliance failed to revise the previous NATO strategic concept adopted in 1999, before 9/11, and finally chose to prepare only a single Comprehensive Political Guidance, that the next Riga summit will endorse late November. Instead of defining national or multinational strategies, should we start to think differently, to imagine a new approach of a "sustainable security strategy" ?
Jean DUFOURCQ, rear-admiral (2d section), is in charge of the academic research at the Collège de la Défense of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Rome.
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[masquer] NATIO, One Month before Riga - André DUMOULIN
[afficher]Abstract
The Atlantic Alliance is perhaps starting its third structural reform. The delicate assimilation of "global strategy" and the priorities concerning war on terror and failed States lead to a series of fundamental questions – diplomatic and doctrinal, philosophical and strategic —, that could be, for a part, unresolved before the Riga Summit. The semantic ambiguities and the divergence of transatlantic or intraeuropean point of views hide imperfectly the reality according to which it is better to build Europe first in order "to think the Atlantic Alliance", whereas NATO is still considered indispensable if Europeans and Americans want to engage together.
André DUMOULIN, attaché at the École royale militaire (Brussels), is lecturer at the University of Liège and at the Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB). Member of the Réseau multidisciplinaire d'études stratégiques (RMES), he recently directed France- OTAN : vers un rapprochement doctrinal ? Au-delà du 40e anniversaire de la crise francoatlantique (Brussels, Bruylant, 2006).
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[masquer]OPEN FORUM
The End of French Europe? - Steven Philip KRAMER
[afficher]Abstract
The Fifth Republic has historically represented the achievement of social and political consensus in post-WW2 France. It is this consensus that is destroyed with the end of cold war. To take back its central place in the European construction, France must change its own mode of functioning (political, economical and social) and redefine radically its vision of Europe's future, that is to say also its relations with the American power.
Steven Philip KRAMER is Professor at the National Security Studies Department, Industrial College of the Armed Forces (National Defense University, Washington, DC).
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[masquer] EU/Turkey: the Hypothesis of a Gradual Integration - Cemal KARAKAS
[afficher]Abstract
The accession negotiations between the European Union (EU) and Turkey, which began 3rd October 2005, launched a new phase. No other country has provoked such fierce negative reactions as Turkey. The accession negotiations differ from previous ones in that membership is disapproved of by large parts of the EU public. For the first time in the history of EU enlargement, alternative options for cooperation and integration in addition to full membership became part of EU accession negotiations. With gradual integration, Turkey would not only be integrated economically but also politically, and would receive the right to participate in decision-making. It could therefore be an interesting integration alternative beyond full membership for the EU as well as for Turkey.
Cemal KARAKAS is research assistant at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF) and parliamentary assistant at the European Parliament.
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