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Tailored Assurance: Balancing Deterrence and Disarmament in Responding to NATO-Russia Tension

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Proliferation Papers
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The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) called for tailoring assurance across America’s allies, including NATO, as part of an overall deterrence and assurance strategy. 

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NATO is currently dealing with several challenges: Russian hostility, growing pressure internally for nuclear disarmament or withdrawal of non-strategic US nuclear weapons, as well as the questioning of America’s credibility as a guarantor of European security. Since these sources of tension are not felt symmetrically across the 29 member states, it has become necessary to adapt assurance measures on a case-by-case basis by adjusting the military capabilities involved and the communication according to the needs of each country.

The purpose of this study is to identify the various options available to the United States to enable it to adapt capabilities, messaging strategies, and other tools, thereby providing more effective and consistent assurance in the face of the Russian threat. In order to respond effectively to a strategy aimed at accentuating the internal divisions of the Alliance, it is necessary to combine measures related to the “hardware” of NATO’s posture (nuclear weapons, investments, conventional forces etc.) and others related to its “software” (values, Alliance cohesion, communication, etc.).

 

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978-2-36567-887-2

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Tailored Assurance: Balancing Deterrence and Disarmament in Responding to NATO-Russia Tension

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Security Studies Center
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Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

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EUDIS, HEDI, DIANA: What's behind Three Defense Innovation Acronyms?

Date de publication
25 September 2024
Accroche

In Europe, with Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine showing little sign of abating, a persistent gap remains between security needs and defense spending. According to a 2006 commitment enshrined at the 2014 Wales NATO summit, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members should disburse no less than 2% of their national gross domestic product (GDP) on defense, out of which 20% is to be spent on equipment and research and development. In 2024, only 23 Allies out of 32 are expected to meet or exceed this target, though a significant improvement from only three in 2014. This total includes the United States (US) devoting 3.38% of its GDP to defense, constituting almost 70% of all NATO member defense spending combined. 

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Date de publication
10 September 2024
Accroche

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza show us the extent to which artificial intelligence (AI) has become integral to battlefield operations. 

French thinking on AI integration and interaction with nuclear command and control, force structure, and decision-making

Date de publication
13 November 2023
Accroche

This paper analyses the French literature on France’s perception of military AI, especially its consequences on strategic systems and competition, and nuclear deterrence.

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The Future of Europe’s Strategic Deterrence is (also) at Sea

Date de publication
11 June 2024
Accroche

A cursory look at both France and the UK suggests that the future of European nuclear deterrence is at sea.

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Tailored Assurance: Balancing Deterrence and Disarmament in Responding to NATO-Russia Tension