Abstract

Barack Obama has had to deal with a heavy legacy left by the Bush administration in the Middle East. The “militarization of foreign policy” still exists, in particular in Iraq and Afghanistan. Washington’s reaction to the 2011 revolutions has not been exempt from hesitations and contradictions; American policy with respect to the Arab world is currently in a phase of reorientation.

Philippe DROZ-VINCENT is a professor and researcher at the Toulouse 1 university. He is the author of Le Moyen-Orient (Paris, Le Cavalier bleu, 2009) and Vertiges de la puissance. Moment américain au Moyen-Orient (Paris, La Découverte, 2007).

Abstract

Unilateralism and multilateralism must be understood to be American diplomatic stabilization instruments, focused on protecting the country’s interests. It now appears that George W. Bush made milder changes in his time than once thought. The Obama administration seems to use a discourse much more open to multilateralism. The evolutions of global power balances will, in the future, urge Washington to turn more often to multilateral negotiation.

Jussi HANHIMAKI teahces international history at the Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement in Geneva and is the director of the Programme for the Study of Global Migration. He is the author of The Flawed Architect: Henry Kissinger and American Foreign Policy (OUP, 2004) et de Transatlantic Relations since 1945 (Routledge, to be published).

Translated from the English by Elsa Paroissien-Ryder.

Abstract

September 11th has without a doubt been facilitated by the dysfunction within American information and decision-making systems. However the attacks also marked the beginning of a particular period where decisions are made by a very limited group of men, short-circuiting the normal processes and marginalizing any debate. Hence the wanderings of the “war on terror”, which the Obama administration has strived to rectify.

Charles-Philippe DAVID holds the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in strategic and diplomatic studies at the university of Quebec in Montreal. He is the co-chair of the Observatoire sur les États-Unis. He is one of the co-authors of La Politique étrangère des États-Unis : fondements, acteurs, formulation (Paris, Presses de Sciences Po, 2008). He has edited a collective work entitled Théories de la politique étrangère américaine, to be published by the Presses de l’Université de Montréal in 2012.

Abstract

Diplomatically isolated and confronted with the second Intifada, Israel has chosen 9/11 to strengthen its relationship with Washington in the context of the fight against terrorism. Since this change, the Israeli-Palestinian balance of power has been profoundly modified. Ten years later however, the Obama administration struggles to adopt an attitude of distance with respect to Israel, but the threat of terrorism seems to have weakened and thus questions the system put in place by Tel-Aviv after 9/11.

Frédéric ENCEL has a PfD in geopolitics from Paris 8 university and teaches at ESG Management School and Sciences Po Paris (MA in international relations). He is the author of several books on Israel and the Middle East, among which Comprendre la géopolitique (Paris, Points Seuil, 2011).

Abstract

The terrorist attacks of 9/11 have profoundly changed the Israeli-Palestinian situation. The relationship between Washington and Tel-Aviv was strengthened and Israel succeeded in marginalizing the idea of a Palestinian state with viable borders. The external interference was detrimental to the credibility of the Palestinian Authority (PA) with lasting institutional consequences. It is the combination of all of these standoffs that has pushed the Palestinians towards the debate on the recognition of their state at the United Nations (UN).

Jalal AL HUSSEINI is a researcher at the Institut français du Proche-Orient in Amman. He holds a PhD from the university of Geneva in international relations. He is the author of several books on the construction of the Palestinian state as well as on the question of Palestinian refugees, in its political and socio-economic dimension. He works as a consultant on these questions for several national and international agencies based in the Middle East.

Abstract

The American intervention in Iraq has not had the intended domino effect: a succession of regime changes pushing for democratization in the region. Iraq has in fact undergone what seems more like a “regime replacement” than a “regime change”. The chaotic Iraqi democracy has at no time been used as a model for the Arab revolutions of 2011. In the future it could be these revolutions that may influence the internal balances in Iraq.

Alexandra de HOOP SCHEFFER is a political analyst specialized in US foreign relations and in questions of postconflict reconstruction. She teaches at Sciences Po Paris and is an associate researcher at the CERI center at Sciences Po, at the OPA at Paris 3 university and at Ifri. She is the author of Hamlet en Irak (CNRS éditions, 2007).

Abstract

Following the attacks of 9/11, American and Iranian interests converged on the Afghan question. Washington and Tehran established a fruitful cooperation, which ended with George W. Bush’s Freedom Agenda and the revelation of an Iranian nuclear program. If Barack Obama had wanted to hold a hand out to Iranian leaders in the beginning of his first term as president, he has lately become a more traditional politician, using sanctions to make Tehran cooperate.

Suzanne MALONEY is a researcher at the Brookings Institution. She holds a PhD from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, and used to work for the Policy Planning Staff at the State Department.

Translated from the English (United States) by Guylaine Vivarat.

Abstract

Following the attacks of 9/11, American and Iranian interests converged on the Afghan question. Washington and Tehran established a fruitful cooperation, which ended with George W. Bush’s Freedom Agenda and the revelation of an Iranian nuclear program. If Barack Obama had wanted to hold a hand out to Iranian leaders in the beginning of his first term as president, he has lately become a more traditional politician, using sanctions to make Tehran cooperate.

Suzanne MALONEY is a researcher at the Brookings Institution. She holds a PhD from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, and used to work for the Policy Planning Staff at the State Department.

Translated from the English (United States) by Guylaine Vivarat.

Abstract

A member of NATO since 1952, Turkey has traditionally been an ally of the United States, despite disagreements on Cyprus and Iraq. However, since the arrival into power of the Justice and Development Party, relations between the two countries have been tense. From this point on, it will be necessary to find a balance between the need to recognize a more ambitious Turkey on a regional level and the imperatives of American security.

Dorothée SCHMID is a specialist on european politics in the Mediterranean and in the Middle East. She is the current director of the Contemporary Turkey Programme at Ifri. Her work deals with developments in internal politics in Turkey and on new Turkish diplomatic ambitions.

Abstract

The American strategy towards Pakistan has favored goals linked to operations in Afghanistan without necessarily taking Islamabad’s interests into account. The army and the Pakistani opinion are therefore more and more sensitive to American intrusions in the country. A possible agreement with the Taliban in which Pakistan would play a decisive role could restore national Pakistani interests to a place of importance. Pakistan’s most pressing interests remain concerned with the growing power of India in the region.

Anatol LIEVEN teaches at the Department of War Studies at King’s College in Londres and is a senior fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington, DC.

Translated from the English (Great Britain) by Thomas Richard.

Abstract

The American strategy towards Pakistan has favored goals linked to operations in Afghanistan without necessarily taking Islamabad’s interests into account. The army and the Pakistani opinion are therefore more and more sensitive to American intrusions in the country. A possible agreement with the Taliban in which Pakistan would play a decisive role could restore national Pakistani interests to a place of importance. Pakistan’s most pressing interests remain concerned with the growing power of India in the region.

Anatol LIEVEN teaches at the Department of War Studies at King’s College in Londres and is a senior fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington, DC.

Translated from the English (Great Britain) by Thomas Richard.

Abstract

After the failure of the regime change concept in Iraq, counterinsurgency is the new paradigm of American foreign operations. It has seen some success in Iraq, but has failed in Afghanistan. Counterinsurgency has a complex history in the rivalries between the armed services and demands a mobilization of resources, especially people, out of reach of the limited wars. The withdrawal from Afghanistan will certainly mark the end of a conceptual cycle of counterinsurgency.

Élie TENENBAUM, holds a MA from Sciences Po and is a research assistant at the Laboratoire de recherche sur la défense (LRD) and at the Centre des études de sécurité at Ifri. He is a PhD student in history of international relations at Sciences Po (CERI).

Abstract

The arrival into power of Barack Obama, following two terms of George W. Bush marked notably by the war in Iraq, sparked much hope within Arab countries. Surprised by the magnitude and speed of the revolutions in 2011, the Obama administration reacted case by case pragmatically and in a way that conformed largely to American interests. Thus hope was followed by disillusion and the American president is now very unpopular in the Arab world.

Mansouria MOKHEFI is the head of the Programme on Maghreb and the Middle East at Ifri. She used to teach at Vassar College in New York and at the Institut des langues et civilisations orientales (INALCO) and currently teaches at the New York University in Paris.

Abstract

Is there uniqueness to the democratic deficiency in the Arab-Muslim sphere? The evolution of diverse situations (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, etc.) makes it impossible at the moment to say whether we have witnessed successful revolutions. The impossibility of satisfying a pressing demand for democracy could in the long term have the effect of putting Islamism, with legitimacy in Arab-Muslim societies, in the power seat.

Marc CRAPEZ is a researcher in political science, associated to Sophiapol (Paris 10 university). He has recently published Un besoin de certitudes. Anatomie des crises actuelles (Paris, Michalon, 2010).

Abstract

In the context of a deadlock in the European Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP), diverse bi- or trilateral initiatives have attempted to revive defense cooperation since 2010: the Franco-British accord, the Franco-German-Polish letter, the German-Swedish letter, etc. These partial axes of cooperation will certainly be useful, but they will not be able to replace the global political will, which alone could permit the carrying out of operations anticipated by the Treaty of Lisbon.

André DUMOULIN is associated to the École royale militaire in Brussels, teaches at the Liège university and is a member of the Réseau multidisciplinaire d’études stratégiques.