Abstract

For the last two decades, the international community has opened up the debate on the entwined concepts of failed states and fragile states - a theme which particularly resonated in France. This paper considers the rationale behind these extremely rich intellectual developments and considers the present state of an art which encourages fresh criticism of a previously-favored model of ideal 'Weberian' state.

François GAULME is in charge of the Cellule Crises et conflits (CCC) at the Agence française de développement (AFD).

Abstract

Experience shows that the social and economic crises or even civil wars associated with failing states have spillover effects on neighboring countries and affect regional stability. As the international community rightly takes a more active role in aiding states left behind by the advances of globalization, its interventions for the most part have been blundered and ineffective, with the Afghan disaster as the culmination. One must consider whether the working methods, conceptual framework or even the broader philosophy that guide these actions are not profoundly ill-adapted. Viable solutions must ultimately prioritize the rebuilding of modern state institutions that are necessary for social restructuring and economic development.

Serge MICHAILOF, former director of the World Bank, former executive director in charge with the operations at the Agence française de développement (AFD) and former deputy-director of Proparco, is a teacher at Sciences Po.

Abstract

For the last two decades Somalia has been the scene of endless violence; stabilizing the country seems to be beyond the capabilities both of local leaders and the international community. Some causes are internal - either deeply rooted in the country's history, and its socioeconomic structure, or the consequences of globalization. Yet internal difficulties are now so closely linked with foreign intervention - at times extremely ill-advised - that it is tricky to find a way out of the Somali crisis and to build and implement more appropriate strategies.

Jean-Bernard VERON, in charge of the department Crisis Prevention and Conflict Resolution at the Agence française de développement (AFD), is an economist and editor in chief of the journal Afrique contemporaine.

Abstract

States of the Sahel are often unfairly dismissed as merely having a symbolic presence on their own territory, and yet they do not fit the various descriptions of failed states. While Malian democracy is far from perfect, the country's institutions have demonstrated a remarkable resilience. Mauritania, a fragile state, is resisting the whirlwind. Both Mali and Mauritania are experiencing difficulties, but they are not failed states - a testament to the fact that, despite appearances, they both have their own elements of internal cohesion.

Alain ANTIL is a resarch fellow and in charge of the Sub-Saharan Africa Program at Ifri.

Sylvain TOUATI is a research fellow.

Translated by Christiane RENARD.

Abstract

The concept of a failed state is problematic. It concentrates on the state institutions and emphasizes investments in defense and security. In Columbia, President Uribe's double term certainly won the war waged against guerrillas and regained control of the territory, but this came at the price of widespread militarization, and a step back in terms of the state's role in social and economic well-being.

José Fernando FLOREZ RUIZ is a lawyer and professor at the External University of Colombia. He wrote a number of articles and essays about democracy, presidentialism, Latin-American political regimes and parties and is a columnist at the journals Semana.com and RazonPublica.

Translated by Elsa PAROISSIEN.

Abstract

The marked victory of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in 2009 sparked hopes of fundamental changes after a long domination by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). In late 2010 the atmosphere was that of collective disappointment. The DPJ has failed to change the government's rationale, particularly when it comes to the complex links between the cabinet, the administration and the majority party. Indecisive and lacking political vision in the midst of an economic crisis, the succession of prime ministers were doomed to failure.

Tobias HARRIS writes a Political Science PhD at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and is author of the blog about Japanese politics Observing Japan.

Abstract

Supposedly bogged down by a drawn-out crisis, Japan currently produces as much as China. Its economy is faced with tough challenges, such as the lack of political leadership, public sector debt and a rapidly-ageing population. But Japan’s assets are just as tangible as the difficulties it faces: technological excellence, dynamic trade, financial power, economic and commercial leadership in Asia. Strong political leadership, re-instilling faith in the country, could be the key to boosting the economy.

Claude MEYER, research fellow at Sciences Po's Groupe for World Economy, and former deputy executive officer of a Japanese bank in Paris, is a international economy professeur at Sciences Po. Among other titles, he wrote Chine ou Japon : quel leader pour l'Asie ? (Paris, Presses de Sciences Po, 2010).

Translated by Thomas RICHARD.

Abstract

The aftermath of the Second World War led Japan to develop a soft power approach that would ensure its international presence: development aid, limited participation in peace-keeping operations, etc. Yet this soft power seems to have reached its limits. Japan is now hesitating before a policy of greater openness - creating a true immigration policy, ambitious free trade agreements - while simultaneously being confronted by the hard power realities of its regional space - its alliance with the United States and a growing militarization of East Asia.

Tsuneo AKAHA, director of the Center for East Asian Studies and a professor, is a specialist of Japan's foreign and security policy, international relations in the Asia-Pacific zone, international economy and maritim affairs.

Abstract

Japan is updating its military and diplomatic posture, reinforcing its position in the region in the face of growing concern over China's military modernization. The Japanese hope to acquire greater mobility and improve their force projection capabilities while putting in place a new regional security structure. Tokyo also hopes to diversify its international profile by reinforcing its participation in peacekeeping operations overseas. This will no doubt be followed by the arrival of Japanese industry on the international arms market.

Céline PAJON, research fellow at Ifri's Center for Asian Studies, works on Japanese domestic and foreign policy and Japan's defense posture. Among her latest publications, see Comprendre la problématique des bases militaires américaines à Okinawa (Paris, Ifri, « Asie.Visions », n° 29, juin 2010).

Abstract

Japan’s post-war development was built around the family model of the man as the breadwinner and the woman as the home-maker. The mother’s role in children’s education was paramount. The economic crisis and Japan’s demography have meant that women’s role outside of the home has been deepened. But this change in the workplace comes up against strong social resistance, as witnessed by a recurring discourse chastising “bad mothers”.

Takeda HIROKO, research fellow in political science and Gender studies, is a professor at the Center for East Asian Studies of Sheffield University, and at the National Institute for Japanese Studies, Centre White Rose East Asia.

Abstract

Obama's administration is intent on restoring the United States image abroad. In order to achieve this, it is utilizing all the technologies linked to the Internet to showcase its diplomacy while simultaneously linking the Internet to the promotion of democracy. Yet these choices are nevertheless debatable: while the Internet is certainly playing an increased political role, some authoritarian regimes are also able to adapt to the new realities of the digital age.

Julien NOCETTI,graduate in international relations and geopolitics of the former Soviet area, is an associate research fellow at Ifri since September 2009 and works on Russia's policy in Middle East and Internet's governance. He will publish in Spring 2011 Internet et pouvoir en Russie: vers une souveraineté du Web russe (Paris, Ifri, to be published).

Résumé

It remains unclear what use Beijing intends to make of the new capabilities of its naval fleet, which it has been modernizing over the last decade. The advances made by China's navy in three main areas do, however, give us some indications as to its priorities. Increased capabilities in terms of projecting strength, protecting sea lanes and denying access not only allow China to respond to potential conflict but also act as a deterrent. Indeed, antagonism with the United States seems likely to be at the heart of China's decision to modernize its naval fleet.

Yves-Heng Lim is PhD in international security and defense from Beijin University and the université Jean Moulin Lyon 3 (Centre d’études lyonnais de sécurité internationale et de défense).

Abstract

The world that saw the birth of the Euro-American partnership is no more. A far more complex world is emerging today, one in which power is both concentrated and unfocused, one in which Western societies, while they remain strong, are nevertheless damaged. It is therefore essential to redefine the Atlantic. This means including critically important regions such as the Mediterranean, Africa or Latin America, as these regions are the key to the Atlantic’s renewed strategic importance.

Simon SERFATY,professor and Eminent Scholar at Old Dominion University (Norfolk), is holder of the Brzezinski Chair in "Geostrategy and Security Studies" at the Center for International and Strategic Studies (Washington). Among other titles, he published Architects of Delusion. Europe, America, and the Iraq War (Philadelphia, University of Pennsylvania Press, 2009) and, in French, La Tentation impériale (Paris, Odile Jacob, 2004).