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Abstract
Eight years after Spring 1999's bombing on Serbia by the NATO forces, the future of Kosovo remains very uncertain. But everybody agrees on one point: status quo is unbearable and the UN administration over the province is no longer possible. However, no negotiated solution seems to be implemented. The Albanians want nothing but independence, an option Belgrade cannot accept. The contradictions of the 1999 war can contribute to explain Kosovo deadlock. This situation is fraught with terrible threats for the whole region. Whatever the solution, it will not be the end of Yugoslavia's splitting process, but will open a new era for the definition of regional balances.

Jean-Arnault DERENS, analyst of the Balkans and journalist, is co-founder and Chief-Editor of the Courrier des Balkans. He recently published Kosovo, année zéro (Paris, Paris-Méditerrannée, 2006) and, with Laurent Geslin, Comprendre les Balkans, histoire, sociétés, perspectives (Paris, Non Lieu, 2007).

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Abstract
With the numerous interventions that have taken place since the end of the Cold War, Western militaries have rediscovered the various constraints inherent in limited wars, while confronting asymmetrical adversaries who for their part are waging total wars in protection of vital stakes. This new strategic context requires a clean and definitive break with the legacy of the Cold War. The future force construct or model of the French military must therefore ensure that a logic predicated on the use of force, as well as its implications in terms of capabilities, takes precedence over the logic of mere diplomatic advancement. In turn, this requires a full-spectrum military that covers as many conflict scenarios as possible and eschews complete specialization at the low-end or high-end, and rejects shortfalls and gaps in capabilities and operational functions.

Étienne de DURAND, analyst of strategic and military affairs, is Head of the Security and Defense Center (Ifri) and teaches at the Institut d'études politiques (Paris).

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Abstract
The next White Book on French Defense Policy is a difficult work in progress. The international climate is badly deteriorated. We must push for rationalization and Europeanization of our army model so as to limit physical and financial constraints. On a political but also military level, the ESDP bears a brighter future than that of the alignment to NATO. The preservation of expenditure reserved for nuclear arms, space, antiballistic missiles and antimissile capacities will ask for pertinent arbitration. Investment is necessary in these areas and will structure European strategic autonomy.

Louis GAUTIER teaches political science (University Lyon III) and was Advisor on defense for former Prime Minister Lionel Jospin. He is national delegate for strategic issues (Parti Socialiste). He recently published Face à la guerre (Paris, La Table Ronde, 2006).

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Abstract
The launching of nuclear deterrence is in France the example of a strategic choice that has shaped, at all levels – particularly at the industrial level – the organization of our defense. This methodic approach must be used again, by the adoption of a truly joint-force capabilities approach. It can both satisfy the needs of the defense policy and limit the costs of the necessary equipment.

Jean RANNOU, former chief of staff of the Air Force, is EuroDéfense France's CEO.

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Abstract
Most of current military equipment are produced in limited series, making themmore expensive. They try to fit technological innovations into almost unchanged World War II platforms. New multirole platforms should be invented (UAV, versatile aircraft, etc.), allowing the integration of a greatest number of new technologies and likely to be mass-produced.

Edward N. LUTTWAK is Senior Advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington D.C.

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Abstract
Since the beginning of the new century, Germany has become an active global player both in the diplomatic and the military field, with its own perceptions and interests. Firmly anchored in the existing multilateral structures of NATO and the EU, Germany has deployed many efforts to contribute to solve world's main conflicts. But given the very complex dynamics of these conflicts, its chronic lack of financial resources and its reluctance to use military force, Germany's aims in foreign policy reach sometimes far beyond the practical results of these efforts.

Hans STARK, lecturer at the University of Sorbonne Nouvelle (Paris III), is the General Secretary of the Study Committee for Franco-German Relations (Cerfa). He teaches at the Institut d'études politiques of Paris.

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Abstract
Germany's improvement has largely started during Gerhard Schröder's two mandates, symbolized by the Hartz IV laws and the implementation in 2003 of the Agenda 2010. The decisions of Merkel's government remain faithful to the Agenda2010, with however an accent on budgetary and financial consolidation, and in favor of growth and innovation potential. The success is evident, but still depends on numerous internal and external hazards.

René LASSERRE, Professor and Head of the Centre d'information et de recherche sur l'Allemagne contemporaine (CIRAC), teaches at the University of Cergy-Pontoise.

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Abstract
Reforms implemented by Gerhard Schröder and continued by the grand coalition could face a social contestation concerning minimum wage or jobseeker's allowance for seniors. In the context of pre-electoral repositioning for the SPD, internal matters – creating debate in a cacophonous but lasting coalition – are numerous: reform of federalism, organization of the health system, creation of a generalized minimum wage, etc.

Jérôme VAILLANT, German Civilization Professor at University Charles de Gaulle (Lille III), is chief Editor of the journal Allemagne d'aujourd'hui.

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Abstract
After 1945, Germany has defined its "policy towards the past" with a new discipline: the history of the present. It has succeeded in confronting Germans with their past and its consequences; but only recently has a debate started – through literature and films – over German victims of war, bombings and exodus. This debate must lead to a critical comprehension of Germany's past, not to victimization.

Hans-Ulrich WEHLER is History Professor at the University of Bielefeld.

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Abstract
Turkey has undergone serious crises in the course of this year. They seemed to indicate that the country was still far from being EU-compatible. Yet, these crisesshould probably rather be seen as reactions to the fragile metamorphosis of the country under Prime Minister Erdogan's leadership. AK Party successfully opposed, during the electoral campaign, its pragmatic agenda to the identity- andsecularism-indexed approach of the Kemalist establishment. Yet, many questionmarks remain, the least important not being the one about the scope of AKP's change itself and about its ability to become a traditional center-right party.

Thomas BENALO stayed a long time in Istanbul, where he has been lecturer in various universities. He is now a free-lance journalist and still goes frequently to Turkey.

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Abstract
The "come-back" of Russian power fuels speculation. The Kremlin seems to have a commercial predation policy, dedicated to its internal and foreign policy. A giantholding is emerging, systematically trying to control, upstream and downstream, the greatest part of the energy sector. Helped by numerous juridic advisors, it tries to trap capitalism with its own logic.

Adrian DELLECKER is Junior Research Fellow at the Russia/NIS Center (Ifri). He is currently working on the transatlantic segment of the Russia/NIS program, and on Russia's bilateral energy relations.

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Abstract
The American strategic debate is going through a crucial period. Since 2006, its agenda has become largely Iraqi-centered, challenging the current doctrines of the services. But after Iraq, new issues are emerging, likely to change the debate in the middle and long term: the reshaping of the deterrence system, the constitution of a military command in Africa, managing China.

François RAFFENNE works on North America for the Delegation of Strategic Affairs (French Ministry of Defense).

Jean-Loup SAMAAN is visiting scholar at the Rand Corporation (Washington D.C.)

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Abstract
Iranian authorities intend to benefit from the emergence of a multipolar world in order to escape an imposed isolation. They try to improve their relationship with Moscow, using bilateral cooperation as a diplomatic tool in the hope that it will maintain an independent Russian voice inside UN's Security Council. Islam appears to be a way to strengthen economical and political links with Malaysia and Indonesia. Exchanges are also growing with India and China, based on common energetic and commercial interests. Eventually, the moderate position of these countries regarding the nuclear issue seems to give some coherence to the Iranian strategy.

Thierry KELLNER, PhD in international relations (IUHEI, Geneva), is Associate Fellow at the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies (BICCS) and teaches at the Free University of Brussels.

Clément THERME, PhD student (EHESS and IUHEI) is Junior Research Fellow at the Middle-East/North Africa Center, Ifri.

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Abstract
Since the independences, Africa's French-speaking part is France's sphere of influence – in which is conducted a policy, guided by principles established in the 1960's and never modified since then. What have been, during two presidential mandates, the orientations and principles of France's African policy? A policy that remained the exclusive domain of the President, but has been influenced by a couple of advisors in charge of African affairs. A policy that remained faithful to the principles defined by the General de Gaulle. And eventually, a policy that changed somehow with the local and international upheavals of the last decade.

Gérard CLAUDE, Professor and PhD in Contemporary History, studies the migratory and geopolitical issues in Mediterranean. He teaches at the Institut d'études politiques of Aix-en-Provence and has recently published Géopolitique et relations internationales en Méditerranée (Paris, Ellipses, 2007).

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Abstract
One can be very critical of the major mantras in the North-South dialogue on foreign aid. The emphasis on democracy and good governance, and the belief in education have to be criticized, as well as the assumption that the adoption of democracy reduces corruption. The systematic attacks against protectionism – although many Western countries, and more recently South Korea, benefited from it in the past – is questionable. Crucial issues like infrastructures and agriculture are hardly mentioned in international conferences and their share in international aid has been shrinking. Yet these are some of the best remedies to alleviate poverty.

Gilbert ETIENNE is Professor Emeritus of Development Economics at the Institut universitaire de hautes études internationales (IUHEI) and at the Institut universitaire d'études du développement (IUED), in Geneva. He is notably the author of Le Développement à contre-courant (Paris, Presses de Sciences Po, 2003) and of Chine-Inde, la grande compétition (Paris, Dunod, 2007).

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