Abstract
After September-11, the United States has devised a new approach towards the Middle East. The "Bush Doctrine" envisions a broad transformation of the region's politics, seen as a requisite for long-term regional and global security and for winning the "War onTerror". Three possible energy security challenges are reviewed in this paper (the risk of supply disruption, the risk of oil supply concentration, the risk of a lack of investment in production capacities). For each risk, it is asked under what conditions could the new US Middle East policy contribute to mitigate it. The conclusion is that these conditions are serious enough to shift at least part of the burden of proof on those who claim that the Bush Doctrine is "all about oil".

Pierre NOEL, Research Fellow at Ifri, is Head of Energy Studies and collaborates on the Centre français sur les États-Unis (CFE). He will join the Electricity Policy Research Group (EPRG) at the Judge Business School, University of Cambridge (United Kingdom) in September 2006.

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Abstract
Policy makers in oil-importing countries express concern about political instability inexporting countries, and their willingness to invest for future exports. In fact, the petroleum exporting countries are more dependent on oil trade than the importing countries, and can be expected to invest to support this trade. They depend on growing foreign currency earnings and government revenue to sustain their economic growth and face difficult adjustments when, in the future, petroleum production ceases to grow. Failure to invest in the petroleum sector would accelerate their difficulties, but they also need to develop an export-oriented, tax generating growth outside petroleum.

John V. MITCHELL, Associate Fellow at the Royal Institute for International Affairs (Chatham House), has published The Changing Geopolitics of Energy (London, RIIA, 2003), The New Economy of Oil, (Londres, RIIA, 2001), and edited Companies in a World of Conflict (London, RIIA, 1998).

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Abstract
Gas resources can easily meet the projected increase in global demand. However, international trade in energy will need to expand to accommodate the growing mismatch between the location of demand or production. The Middle East nations emerge among the leading countries, with a reserve to production ratios exceeding 100 years. Although some have significant domestic consumption, this mostly leaves ample potential for exports. Most of the incremental output in the Middle East will be exported to North America, Europe and Asia, where indigenous production will fall behind demand on the short to medium term. The key question is whether the Middle East can live up to the consuming countries' supply expectations.

Anouk HONORÉ, Fellow, works on the Natural Gas Research Programme of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (United Kingdom) and especially on the liquefied natural gas in Europe and the Atlantic basin, on the issues of price, demand and energy production.

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Abstract
With a total population which will increase by a third between 2000 and 2050, the world is poised to deep changes in the next decades. The last UN projections show the strong weight of South Asia in this trend, and particularly India. For the Economists, the relation with demography passes by three concepts at least: the relative weight of a population; the demographic transition; finally, the demographic "window of opportunity" which measures the optimal period for the economic growth thanks to a labor force growing faster than the total population. What is the situation of South Asia on these three indicators? Which possible impact will they have on the world economy? Lastly, how India will be able or not to manage at a regional level this demographic transition?

Jean-Joseph BOILLOT is Professor of Social Sciences and holds a PhD in Economy. He has joined the French Ministry of Economy as a Financial Advisor for South Asia between 2003 and 2005. He has published about twenty books of which L'Économie de l'Inde (Paris, La Découverte, 2006).

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Abstract
After years of tensions, India and Pakistan have been engaged in a sustained "composite dialogue" since the beginning of 2004. In the post 9/11 context, General Musharraf has started to change Pakistan's traditional regional policy, but is still opposed to the Indian "solution" to the Kashmir issue: to accept the Line of control as a permanent divide, bridged however by a policy of "soft border" allowing renewed relationships between the two sides of Kashmir, and new trade links between India and Pakistan. Islamabad and its military ruling elite have therefore to decide if a new paradigm is required, in order to adjust to the new status gained by emerging India, as New Delhi is able to get the noted support of the US administration, while normalizing as well its relationship with China.

Jean-Luc RACINE is Director of Research at the Centre d'études de l'Inde et de l'Asie du Sud (CEIAS-CNRS) in the Ecole des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS, Paris).

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Abstract
President Musharraf's regime survives in spite of significant challenges. The economic boom rests on weak foundations and the gap between rich and poor is widening. Political parties are getting ready for the elections while President Musharraf will stand in uniform for another mandate. The troubled situation in parts of Balochistan is the product of decades of neglect and deprivation. The insurgents demand greater control over the natural resources of the province and greater power to determine their own affairs. The situation is explosive in Waziristan where the army has been deployed after 9/11 to stem the fl ow of Afghan Talibans and the remnants of Al-Qaida. The social fabric has been destroyed and local Talibans have brought the area under their virtual writ.

Mariam ABOU ZAHAB, teaches in the Institut d'études politiques of Paris and in the Institut national des Langues et Civilisations orientales (INALCO). Her studies analyze religios violences in Pakistan. She has published, with Olivier Roy, Réseaux islamiques. La connexion afghano-pakistanaise (Paris, Autrement, 2002).

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Abstract
In terms of external trade, or simply of growth, China seems to have widened its advance on India. This can be explained by the impulsion of radical reforms in China, by the role played by the Chinese diaspora, or by the actual growth model that China chose. India and China will widen their influence in world economy, but the challenges they will both face are similar: aging population, lack of managers, inadequate infrastructures, and above all an omnipresent leakage and seepage economy.

Gilbert ETIENNE is Professor Emeritus at the Institut universitaire de hautes études internationales (IUHEI) and at the Institut universitaire d'études du développement (IUED), in Geneva.

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Abstract
The relationship between China and the United States, two driving forces of world growth, is symbolized by some commercial and monetary difficulties. But these commercial and financial partners are strategic rivals. Behind their relationship, the entire distribution of power in Asia is in question: the Chinese regional role, the place of Japan, the new American alliances. A new regional paradigm is in gestation, that the United States must help develop.

Jacques MISTRAL Professor of the Universities, is Senior Fellow in the Kennedy School of Government (university of Harvard, Cambridge, MA).

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Abstract
The People's Republic of China growing appetite for energy is the product of the country's 25-year-long economic boom (characterized by external trade expansion, rising incomes, population growth and increasing urbanization). The country possesses huge reservesof coal, oil and gas, but is increasingly dependent on imports of energy (particularly oil). In order to secure its exclusive access to energy resources, Beijing does not shy away from conflict with neighboring countries and close cooperation with pariah States rich in resources. Before this background, it is necessary to integrate China more closely into the international energy cooperation, particularly into the structures of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Heinrich KREFT is an Analyst in the Center of analysis and forecast of the German ministry of the Foreign Affairs. Diplomat since 1985, he was in station in Tokyo from 1991 to 1994 and Washington, from 2001 to 2004.

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Abstract
Beijing is back in Africa after a few years of neglect. But now, the main incentive is not Taiwan anymore but a broader strategic game, economic interest and access to energy. In Africa, China offers its own model, based on cheap labor and products, stress on nonconditionality and non-interference and a huge market for African oil and raw materials. But this system does not go without critics from some African countries who put more stress on governance and harmonious integration into the global world order.

Valérie NIQUET, Director of the Centre Asie at Ifri, she is a Professor in the College interarmées de défense (CID-École militaire) where she ensures the course of geopolitics of China.

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Abstract
Perpetrators of terrorism understand this specific form of violence as a legitimate form of power negotiation because they operate on a non nation-to-nation level. Rarely operating outside the norms of the target audience, terrorism has grown since the fall of the Soviet Union as ‘the' form of power negotiation due to the absence of authentic opportunities to engage with traditional methods of negotiation between nations – physical negotiation, defined by army-to-army conflict, and oral negotiation, defined by diplomatic engagement and resolution. This article highlights some issues related to understanding terrorism and explores the ramifications of this idea in the aftermath of 9/11.

Stephen R. DI RIENZO is part-time Lecturer at the Department of Science Political and International Relations of the University of Aberdeen (Scotland).

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Abstract
This article suggests that the tactics and strategy used by Jihadists are not completely new. The strategic posture of Jihadist groups can indeed be compared to the one adopted by guerilla movements in the 1950's-1970's. Jihadists and guerilla fighters have at least three common features: they are aware of their asymmetric position; they try to introduce tactical innovations to prevent themselves from being defeated; they know that the necessary condition for victory is popular support.

Marc HECKER is Assistant of Research at the Department of the Safety Studies of Ifri.

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Abstract
Nearly fifteen years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the New Independent States are about to assess their current political, economic and social situation. These five Republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), often gathered under the term "Central Asia", have experienced different political and economic evolutions. They seem however to remain in the same regional ensemble: the rise of authoritarianism, the connivance between the political circles and the mafia-like economic structures, the social – though limited – foothold of radical political Islam confirm the high political risk the region could go through in the long term.

Sébastien PEYROUSE holds a PhD from the Institut national des langues et civilisations orientales (INALCO, Paris). He works on the policy, the monk and the national issues in Central Asia. He is in particular the author of Asie centrale, la dérive autoritaire. Cinq républiques entre héritage soviétique, dictature et islam (Paris, Autrement/CERI, 2006, with Marlène Laruelle).

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Abstract
Hamas's victory in the January 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections showed the Palestinian nationalist movement's collapse. Fatah and the Nationalists outlived their usefulness. They were responsible for 40 years of failure, ending with their inability to govern the West Bank and Gaza Strip or to negotiate a compromise peace agreement with Israel. In 2000, Arafat rejected a good offer: instead, he led the Palestinians to five years of disastrous war. Maximal demands, dictatorial methods and terrorist means are accepted by both Fatah and Hamas as well as the majority of Palestinians. In judging Fatah, Palestinians asked: if it could not obtain a State, why should we support it? If its ideology and strategy were basically identical to Hamas, why not back the Islamists?

Barry RUBIN, Director of Global Research in International Affairs Center (GLORIA) (Herzliya, Israël, Université interdisciplinaire), manages the French and British version of the Middle East Review of International Affairs. His last book is untitled The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (New York, Wiley, 2005).

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Abstract
In 1996, Israel and Turkey signed an agreement for military cooperation. Since then, much has been said and written about this evolving relationship, and political analysts have differed over how to define it. Depending on their assumptions, observers have called the Turkish-Israeli relationship an "axis", an "entente", or even an "alliance". But what exactly is the real nature of this bilateral relationship? What is included; what is excluded? What have the achievements been so far? How will the Iraq war in 2003 and Turkey's accession process to the European Union (EU) affect the future of this strategic partnership?

Murat Metin HAKKI graduate University of right of Southampton, program Master of Laws (LL.M.) of London School of Economics (London), of Cornell Law School and Center for Middle Eastern Studies of the University of Harvard.

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