Abstract
Vladimir Putin's Russia is evolving in contradictory ways: its impressive economic progress, fueled by oil and gas exports, is counterbalanced by retrograde political trends. These ambivalent vectors, combined with Russia's increasingly assertive regional conduct, will pose major policy challenges in 2006. The US and the EU have important security interests vis-à-vis Russia but declining leverage, making Transatlantic coordination imperative.

Mark MEDISH, an international lawyer in Washington, is a former special assistant to President Bill Clinton and senior director of the National Security Council for Russian, Ukrainian, and Eurasian Affairs (2000-2001).He also served as deputy assistant secretary of the US Treasury (1997-2000). He is now Visiting Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

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Abstract
A close study of what is a wide reaching foreign policy leads to a number of contradictory conclusions. It is necessary to acknowledge that Vladimir Putin, despite having to overcome a number of hurdles, has managed to expand Russia's options, even if his strategic choices have not always made sense. This has resulted in a measure of uncertainty which favors tactics over strategy. The Russian president has defined a policy which could be encapsulated in the following play-off: maintaining freedom to maneuver so as to do nothing. This play-off will be analyzed through the prism of historical constants (an outline of the theaters, strategic constructs, and energy resources) and of current issues (Iran, diplomatic positions, and regional integration projects).

Thomas GOMART is Head of the Russian/NIS programme at Ifri and coordinates the Task Force about future of relations EU/Russia. His academic and professional background is closely related to this area. He teaches at the Military School of Saint-Cyr.

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Abstract
This article examines the impact of natural resource wealth on Russian political life. Viewed from a political perspective, what is striking is not how well Russia conforms to the stereotype of a resource-based political economy but how well it has (so far) resisted many of the institutional and political pathologies associated with the 'resource curse'. There is little reason to think that Russia's policy would be much healthier if it had less resource wealth. Nevertheless, it seems that Russia's resource wealth does pose dangers to its political development. The crucial issue is not the nature of the resources themselves but the location of those resources in an institutional environment that is ill-equipped to cope with the pressures and problems that such wealth can create.

William TOMPSON, is currently on secondment to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), where he heads the Russia desk in the Economics Department and is Professor of Political Economy at Birkbeck College, University of London.

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Abstract
This article focuses on the deterioration of relations between Georgia and Russia over the secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia's separatist conflicts are far more than domestic territorial disputes: they have both regional and international implications, and represent one of the principal obstacles to the development of Georgian-Russian relations. As military skirmishes have threatened to escalate, jeopardizing stability in the volatile Caucasus region, President Mikheil Saakashvili's desire to resolve these protracted conflicts has become symbolic of his vigorous approach to tackling Georgia's more intractable problems.

Tracey C. GERMAN is Lecturer at Defence Studies Department of King's College London. Her current research are focused on security issues in the Caucasus region, particularly problems within Georgia, as well as the impact of the ongoing Chechen conflict on relations between Russia and the EU.

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Abstract
Since the beginning of the 1980s in Europe, the emergence of a new form of Islamic religiosity among mainly young people of immigrant parents has been observed. This new relation with Islam is largely the result of 're-islamization' movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood movement. However the 1990s have seen the emergence of a new actor in this 're-islamization' dynamics in Europe: Salafism. It is possible to distinguish three streams resulting from Salafism in Europe. The first tendency is the revolutionary one. It places 'Jihad' at the heart of religious beliefs. The second is predicative Salafism, which bases its action on preaching and religious courses. The last one is political Salafism which organizes its activities around a political logic.

Samir AMGHAR, graduate of political science at the Université Paris-I, he is completing a PhD at the Ecole des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS), focused on minority ideologies of Islam in France and Salafism emergence.

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Abstract
Since early 2005, Chechnya has become like the eye of a storm that has been gathering force across the region. Growing social anger has been the main source of energy for this storm and it is increasingly channeled through clandestine Islamic networks. Moscow was obviously taken by surprise with this escalation and its reaction was intended to suppress 'terrorist cells' by massive use of force. The swift resolution of the October 2005 crisis in Nalchik was interpreted as a victory for this policy; however, a brush-fire of criminalized violence and an underground fire of Islamic radicalism have continued to spread. The issue is not that Russia could fail to defend the North Caucasus against an Islamic uprising; it is whether there is enough survivability in its own body politic.

Pavel K. BAEV is Research Professor at the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO). His works on counter-terrorism russian policy and conflicts in the Caucasus are supported by the Research Council of Norway and the Norwegian Ministry of Defence.

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Abstract
Since the end of the Cold War there has been a dramatic decline in the number of armed conflicts, battle deaths, and the deadliness of individual conflicts; along with a dramatic increase in the number of conflicts resolved by active peacemaking. The best explanation is the increasing effectiveness, for all its shortcomings, of the United Nations security machinery. Five major lessons have been learned for better handling of each of the crucial stages of the conflict cycle –preventing the outbreak, continuation and recurrence of conflict. Violent extremism –or terrorism– remains a more intractable problem, but, here too, the strategies required to succeed are becoming clearer. The ideas, knowledge and experience are all there: what is needed is the political leadership to apply them.

Gareth EVANS, former Foreign Minister of Australia, has been since January 2000 President and Chief Executive of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG).

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Abstract
Experience in Afghanistan during 2005 suggests that the insurgency is not only better organized and more determined, but seems to have adopted a long term strategy. Insurgency-related violence will continue to rise in the area in 2006. Creating a more stable security environment is a prerequisite for the implementation of the processes envisioned in the post-Bonn compact. Short of being able to address the complex issue of the bilateral relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan, the implementation of a counterinsurgency drive designed to address the insurgency's internal causes in the South, Southeast and East of the country should be made a priority by the Afghan government and international actors supporting it. This implies a need for an increase in the international presence in the country in the short term.

Sébastien TRIVES holds a Master in International Relations (Boston University) and a European Studies diploma (Université catholique de Louvain). He was Afghanistan Coordinator for the French Aid Agency (ACTED) and Head of the United Nations office in southeastern Afghanistan.

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Abstract
The balance of control over security processes is shifting from the state to the private sector –partly because 'security' has become defined more widely. Companies have a major potential for good or ill in conflict situations. They are targets of terrorism, may become its accomplices through trafficking and financing, but are also useful partners against it. The commercial provision of defense and security services is growing and raises practical and ethical issues which may require regulation. New ways are needed for private and public actors to communicate on this agenda.

Alyson J.K. BAILES has been in the British Diplomatic Service for 32 years. She became Director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in July 2002.

Caroline HOLMQVIST is Research Associate at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in the Armed Conflict and Conflict Management Programme. Graduate in International Relations, (London School of Economics and Political Science), she worked on armed conflicts.

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Abstract
Recent trends relating to the price of energy, global energy security, and the impact of energy consumption on greenhouse gas emissions led the G8 in 2005 to take on, conjointly, two new policy issues: energy and climate change. This is a recognition that a new concept of collective security has emerged on the international level: that global energy security within a sustainable development context has a strategic dimension, which requires new forms of dialogue and cooperation among nations and new actors.

Jean LAMY is Head of the Bureau de la stratégie internationale at the Direction Générale de l'Energie et des Matières premières (DGMEP) in the French Ministry of Finance (MINEFI). He participated at discussions about the Dialogue on Climate Change, Clean Energy and Sustainable Development, Gleneagles (2005). He contributed to the Mémorandum concerning the revival of the european energy policy in a prospect of sustainable development.

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Abstract
Kosovo is still part of Serbia-Montenegro, which is seeking to retain some form of sovereignty over the province. Its ethnic Albanian majority wants complete independence from Belgrade. Whereas some crucial UN-set standards such as the decentralization process, the return of refugees, and protection of minorities have not yet been implemented, the Kosovo status talks are underway, having officially began in November 2005. The international community has defined three principles: the province cannot go back to where it was, it will not split or merge with another state, and the negotiators should find a solution that is acceptable to both sides. Regional stability is also at stake in this process, the Yugoslav wars having shown that there is a real danger that problems in this region can deteriorate rapidly.

Marina GLAMOTCHAK is Researcher at the Groupe de sociologie de la défense at the Ecole des Hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS). She is the author of La transition guerrière yougoslave (Paris, L'Harmattan, 2002).

Diane MASSON is specialist of Balkans. She is, among others, the author of L'Utilisation de la guerre dans la construction des systèmes politiques en Serbie et en Croatie, 1989-1995 (Paris, L'Harmattan, 2002).

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Abstract
The new socialist government of Spain has changed the foreign policy orientation of the country such that it is heading in the opposite direction of its predecessor. In order to situate Spain in the 'heart of Europe', the government has been trying to institutionalize a specific form of dialogue with France and Germany. At the same time, the government has moved to reaffirm its relations with the traditional partners in Latin America and to instigate an improved understanding with its Mediterranean neighbors. Initiatives to construct a better understanding with the US are underway. The future of this regained partner will depend on the immediate results of these new perspectives.

Günther MAIHOLD was Director of the Ibero-American Institute, Prussian Cultural Heritage Foundation, (Ibero-Amerikanisches Institut Preußischer Kulturbesitz), in Berlin (1999-2004) and is currently Deputy Director at German Institute for International and Security Affairs, (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, SWP) in Berlin.

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