Abstract
With the sudden death of Rémy Leveau, all of his disciples in the new generation of French and foreign specialists of the Arab world are now fatherless.

Gilles KEPEL is Head of researches at the Conflict Studies Research Centre, Defence Academy of the United Kingdom.

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Abstract
Beyond the heterogeneity of a text which juxtaposes federalist, intergovernmental, codifying and constitutional ideas, the arrangements of the constitutional treaty must be examined with regard to three criteria: the synergy between international and supranational logic (decision making in particular), the voting process in intergovernmental fora, and the hierarchy of judicial norms. Following these criteria, the treaty raises a number of ambiguities and creates a third path between supranational integration and the cooperation of States. It improves the functioning of an enlarged Union and marks the passage from an economic Union to a political Union.

Jean-Louis QUERMONNE is Emeritus Professor in Political Science. He has taught at the Grenoble and Paris Instituts d'études politiques and at the Collège d'Europe in Bruges. From 1998 to 2000 he directed the think tank of the Commisariat général du plan on European Union Institutions Reform.

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Abstract
The Treaty establishing a European Constitution is the result of conflicting representations of the future of European Union: on one hand, a kind of an enlarged economic space under the protection of the Atlantic Alliance which would follow common rules, and on the other hand, the ideal of a more united political territory. It is the former vision, rather than the latter, which has prevailed in the text. Will this suffice to ensure proper development of the Union? This question will inevitably encourage members to use the possibility of sub-groups to reinforce their cooperation and structure their defense. Those who will vote "No" will have less legitimacy to implement this option offered by the Constitution.

André BRIGOT, teaches History of the European construction in Security and Defence Fields at the Ecole des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) in Paris, and Strategic and International Relations at the Ecoles de Saint-Cyr-Coëtquidan.

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Abstract
The attitude of Europeans toward the constitutional project is determined by their attitude toward European construction in general, an attitude which vacillates between recognition of its utility and indifference. The constitutional project itself, largely misunderstood, equally encourages indifference, including in the countries that have chosen a referendum vote. Even if the utility of the treaty seems to be recognized in an enlarged Union, some fears remain particularly persistent. Citizens fear losing their national sovereignty and the acceptance of new countries while they have not all accepted the enlargement of 2004. Opposition is equally marked by national considerations, which makes ratification in the entire Union an uncertain prospect.

Bruno JEANBART, Assistant Director to the Institutional-Opinion Department at the Opinion Poll Institute CSA, is specialized in Public Opinion Analysis, notably on electoral issues, and has worked specifically, the past 5 years, on the opinions of the Europeans.

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Abstract
European Security and Defense Policy is at cross-roads. In spite of the accomplishments (external operations Artemis and Concordia) and institutional progress which have marked the last few years, it suffers certain congenital weaknesses (division about the Atlantic link, long tradition of autonomous foreign policies, etc.). Progress will be evaluated by future performance in the context of new threats which could appear on the international scene. From the prospective analysis of different factors which can/cannot influence the Union Common External and Defense Policy, three scenarios of possible evolution emerge: 'A big Switzerland' -a Union which limits itself to civil power-, 'The hard cores' -a pragmatic evolution of ESDP-, and last, 'the US disengagement' which induces an accelerated unification.

Elvire FABRY is Director of Europanova. Member of the editorial staff of Futuribles, she has published Qui a peur de la citoyenneté européenne? La démocratie à l'heure de la Constitution (Paris, PUF, 2005).

Colomban LEBAS is Associated Researcher at the Centre de Géostratégie of the ENS-Ulm. Specialized in the Transatlantic Relation, on Defense issues and European problematics, he has collaborated with the Fondation Robert Schuman and is Scientific Director of Europanova.

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Abstract
The United Nations inevitably remains the indispensable organization. Its future depends foremost on what member countries want to make of it. The United States occupies an exceptional position in the organization and so the UN largely depends on the agreement between Washington and other nations on what mission the organization should fulfill. But one cannot expect everything from the UN and the organization can neither take charge of the management of entire countries nor intervene by marginalizing populations and local expert opinions. Peacekeeping operations must be reconsidered, particularly the process of deployment (information of the Council, steps in the decision process, participation in forces…), and in a way that takes the weight off the UN.

Lakhdar BRAHIMI is Special Advisor to the UN General Secretary since 2004, and has been, amongt other functions, Special Envoy of the UN General Secretary for Afghanistan, chief of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, and has directed the Research Group on Peace Keeping Operations (Rapport Brahimi, 2000).

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Abstract
Because the job of the United Nations is to assure world security, it has been, since the end of the Cold War, the first humanitarian power of the planet. On all fronts, the UN and its numerous specialized institutions have put in place, with impressive means, a new diplomacy of compassion. Far from allowing development and peace, this activism has generated resentment and disillusions in the heart of 'benefiting' populations. The recorded setbacks demonstrate that humanitarian action alone cannot replace politics to guarantee collective security.

Sylvie BRUNEL, Geographer, Jurist and Economist, is Professor of the Paul-Valery University (Montpellier III) and at the Institut d'études politiques (IEP) in Paris, after a service of 17 years in Humanitarian Aid. She has published: Le Développement durable (Paris, Puf, 2004), L'Afrique (Rosny-sous-Bois, Bréal, 2004), Frontières (Paris, Denoël, 2003).

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Abstract
The Yugoslavian crisis in particular forced Western governments and militaries to design an original strategy where initial coercive operations, generally through air operations, would lay the basis for a large and long-term peacekeeping and occupation operation. The financial and military costs of this approach virtually warrant that it could not and would not be applied elsewhere on the same scale. As Afghanistan has demonstrated, success can be achieved with low ratios of troops and spending per local inhabitant and in large and difficult countries. Premised on a light footprint, this new approach seems particularly relevant in a context where asymmetrical foes try to disrupt the peace operation. When counterinsurgency, state-building, and reconstruction are inextricably linked, stabilization operations may indeed proved more appropriate than traditional peacekeeping.

Etienne de DURAND, Specialist of military and strategical issues is Research Fellow at the Security Studies Department of Ifri. He teaches at the Ecole militaire spéciale de Saint-Cyr-Coëtquidan and at the Institut d'études politiques de Paris.

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Abstract
The lack of preparation for postwar, the disorganization of the Coalition, the mistakes of changing strategies have created an obsession of insecurity in Iraq which limits any possibility of reconstruction. The political process is out of line with expectations, international organizations are not very present and Iraqi security services are still unable to take control. International investment is necessary but seems problematic.

Gabrielle LAFARGE (pseudonym) has been Associated Research Fellow at the Institut français d'études arabes of Damas (IFEAD) and has written several articles about Middle-East.

Alexandra NOVOSSELOFF, holds a Ph.D in Political Science and is Associated Research Fellow at the au Centre Thucydide of the University of Paris II-Panthéon-Assas. Specialist of United Nations and peace building, she has published with Paul Quilès (ed.), Face aux désordres du monde (Paris, Les portes du monde, 2005) and Le Conseil de sécurité et la maîtrise de la force armée (Bruxelles, Bruylant, 2003).

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Russian military doctrine assigns nuclear weapons a deterrent role which includes the possibility of limited nuclear strikes, an observation which is reinforced by recent exercises led by Russian forces. Insights from the 1990s concerning the restructuring of strategic forces have not been respected. Plans reviewed in 2000 have been newly modified in 2002 after the signature of the SORT Treaty. The composition of forces must from now on be radically reconsidered. The incertitude remains however on the capacity of Russia to develop programs, particularly concerning service maintenance of old ICBMs, the production of new missiles or new submarines.Yuri Fedorov is Professor of Political Science and Director of University MGIMO of Moscow. He is also Consultant at the Carnegie Center of Moscow.

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Do trade and growth favor the struggle against poverty in developing countries? Several economists argue that poor countries don't need assistance, but only trade, in order to develop. Others stress that foreign trade is dominated by rich countries and leaves the South marginalized. Leaving aside the crucial question of rules governing trade, trade and growth look essential to poverty reduction but the links between them are not automatic. Income inequalities, economic structures and political choices also interfere. Benefits from openness are not equally shared among individuals and regions inside each country. Poverty traps prevent the least developed countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, from participating actively in international trade. Only a combination of better internal governance, a progressive liberalization of trade and a big increase in foreign aid may help them overcome these obstacles.Philippe Delleur is Director of the Central Buying Agency of the French Ministry of Economics, Finance and Industry. He has been Administrator of the Agence française de développement (AFD).

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The change in United States macro-economic policy since 9/11 has squeezed economic orthodoxy. It is now guided by hybrid economic considerations and disturbing political and strategic decisions. Though positive economic results of current economic policy are evident in spite of the challenges involved, it seems necessary to reconsider the dominant paradigm. The beginning of the present century has stressed the importance of violence and political phenomena in understanding and explaining current economic changes. For this reason, it is imperative to transcend the unrealistic but dominant conceptions of the linkage between the economics and organized violence. Eric Lahille, holds of a Ph.D in Economics and is Professor of International Industrial Economics at the Institut supérieur de technologie et management (ISTM) of the Chambre de commerce et d'industrie de Paris. He is Associated Research Fellow at the Centre d'études des modes d'industrialisation (CEMI) of the École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS).

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Several pro-Israeli organizations are trying to influence the position of the French government in order to counterbalance the so-called 'politique arabe de la France'. These organizations are indeed convinced that France has been leading a pro-Arab policy since 1967. Pro-Israeli interest groups are quite unknown and the aim of this paper is to start lifting the veil from these groups. The author first analyzes the nature of the defenders of the Hebrew State and insists on the difference between religious and non religious pro-Israeli interest groups. Then he focuses on the means of action and the weight of these groups. He ultimately tries to reassess the expression 'pro-Israeli lobby' arguing that such an appellation is irrelevant in the French context and should therefore be rejected. Marc Hecker is Research Assistant at Ifri. His last book, La Défense des intérêts de l'État d'Israël en France, will be published in the second half of 2005 by L'Harmattan.

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France and Germany have recently experienced common approaches when confronted to regional crisis in the Middle East. Recent German activism suggests a closer Franco-German cooperation in order to develop solutions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, in the framework of the European Union. This hypothesis needs to be assessed by taking into consideration the respective relationship of both states with the protagonists of the conflict. Far from being complementary, the French and German stances thus appear rather incompatible in practice. Furthermore, institutional constraints make it difficult to elaborate new positions for the enlarged Union. In this context, collaboration with other key states of the Union is required to reach institutional efficiency.Isabel Schäfer is Research Fellow at the Centre d'études politiques sur le Moyen-Orient of the Freie Universität of Berlin; she studies European policies in the Mediterranean and the Near East.

Dorothée Schmid is Associated Research Fellow, EuroMeSCo network of European and political in the Mediterranean.

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The goal of the negotiations that will begin in 2005 is the accession of Turkey to the European Union. French President Jacques Chirac has taken a big democratic risk: he has neither the support of the French population, nor of his own party. In the meantime, the French Constitution has been modified. In the future, a referendum will be obligatory prior to any further enlargement of the EU: it could lead to a clash after years of discussions. The European Union has taken a big risk for its credibility in considering Turkey a country fulfilling the Copenhagen's criteria. The social heterogeneity of the Union would be unmanageable if Turkey which has a GDP representing only 25% of the GDP of the 25 was to join EU. Sylvie Goulard is Research Fellow at the Centre d'études et de recherches internationales (CERI-CNRS). She teaches at the College of Europe in Bruges and in a master of the joined Institut d'études politiques of Paris and the London School of Economics.